中银国际发表报告指，由于OPEC+意外地加速了还原减产，油价在4月初急跌以后持续低迷。PEC+目前把市场份额放在比支持油价更优先地位置，这是由于其他石油公司过去乘OPEC+支持油价之便来增加产量。通过把油价压低，OPEC+可以迫使其他石油公司削资本开支或减少产量，从而使OPEC+重新提升市占率。
因此该行相信油价在一段时间内将保持低迷，把2025至2026年油价预测下调7至8%。同时把中石化(00386.HK) 的评级下调到“持有”，并把中国石油行业的评级由“增持”下调到“中立”。
中银国际指，中海油(00883.HK) 仍是该行业的首选。该公司的低成本及可观的产量增长将减低油价下跌对盈利的负面影响。预期中海油将有强劲的自由现金流，2025至2027年股息率将达6.7至7.2%。
股份│评级│目标价
中海油(00883.HK) │买入│23.55元→22.14元
中石油(00857.HK) │买入│8.08元→7.17元
中石化(00386.HK) │买入→持有│4.58元→4.32元
(ha/u)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-05-20 16:25。)
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