Nvidia Stock Slumps. Tariffs Make Everyone Forget Earnings Are Coming Next Week

Dow Jones
23 May

Nvidia stock was sliding on Friday, as President Donald Trump’s tariff posts overshadowed the chip maker’s next blockbuster earnings report due next week.

Shares were down 1.8% at $130.47 in early trading. The benchmark S&P 500 was down 0.9%.

Friday was expected to be a quiet trading session for Nvidia stock, with many on Wall Street already looking forward to the Memorial Day long weekend. That all changed when Trump took to social media to warn of tariffs on Apple’s iPhone and on Europe.

But next week ought to be a big one for Nvidia, with the company set to post its first-quarter results after Wednesday’s close. The report is expected to underline surging AI demand. Analysts expect earnings of 73 cents a share and forecast that revenue will jump 66% from a year ago to $43.3 billion, according to a FactSet poll.

“We believe that demand for H200 [chips], coupled with initial GB200 ramps should drive a modest beat relative to consensus/guidance, despite in quarter disruption of H20 sales to China…We would expect this set of results/outlook to drive sideways to modestly higher share price performance,” wrote Stifel analyst Ruben Roy in a research note.

Roy has a Buy rating and $180 target price on the stock.

Nvidia is set to lose out on $15 billion worth of sales from the Trump administration’s tightened controls over its H20 chip for the Chinese market, according to CEO Jensen Huang.

That could lead to a shock when it comes to Nvidia’s guidance, according to BofA Research analyst Vivek Arya. He noted that consensus expectations for the company’s second-quarter revenue currently sit at around $46 billion, reflecting a roughly $2 billion hit from the H20 restrictions. However, Arya suggests that if China sales were expected to be concentrated earlier in the year then Nvidia could lose as much as $7 billion in sales from a single quarter, leading to second-quarter revenue as low as $41 billion.

“Despite these near-term headwinds we maintain Buy on Nvidia, a top sector pick given its unique leverage to the global AI deployment cycle, and possibility for China sales recovery on new redesigned/compliant products later in the year,” Arya wrote.

None of that seems to matter on Friday, however. Trump’s posts sent chip stocks tumbling, with Advanced Micro Devices shares down 1.7% in early trading, while Broadcom stock slid 0.3%, Intel declined 2.4%, and Qualcomm fell 2.7%.

And just like that, Nvidia’s earnings are next week’s worry.

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