智通财经APP获悉，美银证券发布研报称，极兔速递-W(01519)的市场份额已达30%，旗下虾皮购物(Shopee)在印尼的业务量削减不太可能影响2025财年的业绩指引;同时公司正在印尼东爪哇省扩建网络，其成本结构可能低于电商平台自营物流。此外，随着平均售价下降，极兔速递有能力降低单位成本，且其自动化水平高于东南亚其他国家。鉴于估值吸引力及中国市场的盈利下行风险已充分提示，重申“买入”评级。基于东南亚市场更高估值，目标价上调2%至7.7港元。
该行指出，印尼作为东南亚最大市场(人口2.8亿)，是极兔速递最获利的地区。其非平台业务量潜力可观，公司正持续扩建销售团队并推广低成本小型货点(目标今年达1万个)。平台业务方面，管理层表示TikTok是东南亚最大且增长最快的客户，Lazada市场份额及业务量近年下降，约50%物流由自身承担;Temu目前在东南亚尚未大规模投资。
尽管印尼平均售价同比降12%，极兔速递通过效率提升推动运输、分拣及收派成本分别同比下降10%、15%和14%。美银证券预计东南亚整体产能利用率为70%，单位成本仍有下降空间。该行将2025至2026财年调整后净利润预测上调0%至4%，主因东南亚业务量增长强劲及新市场(TikTok Shop于5月进入巴西、2月进入墨西哥)有望实现轻微正向EBITDA。鉴于中国市场竞争激烈，预计其中国业务净利润将从2024财年每票0.03-0.04元人民币降至2025财年零。
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