彭博分析师:金银价格比触及高位预示风险资产或将面临双输局面

Blockbeats
21 May

BlockBeats 消息,5 月 21 日,彭博行业研究高级大宗商品策略师 Mike McGlone 表示,金银比通常在美联储结束宽松政策时见顶——5 月 20 日达到 100 倍的金银比正逼近历史最高季度收盘位(2020 年一季度曾达 113 倍)。与既往峰值时期不同,当前缺失了美联储宽松这一关键要素,这可能预示着风险资产将面临双输局面。

McGlone 解释称,当前金银比(100 倍附近)对经济走势的预示意义有限——若 5 月 20 日达到 100 倍的金银比在 2025 年收盘时仍高于 91.5 倍,将创下历史最高年终比值,这通常预示着不利的全球经济前景。1990-91 年和 2020 年美国经济衰退期间都曾出现该比值的峰值,但本次缺少一个关键前提条件,即——美联储宽松政策尚未见底。

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