大财政时代,当海外超长债不再“安全”

华尔街见闻
26 May

近期,美、日等经济体超长债收益率出现大幅上行,30年美债收益率一度上行至5.1%附近,30年日债收益率也一度上行突破3.2%。如何看待海外超长债的大幅上行? 第一,拆分来看,近期的美债利率上行,5月1-9日主要由降息预期降温推动,而5月14日以来则由期限溢价驱动。 从降息预期来看,参考衍生品定价,4月30日,市场仍预期2025年末美联储降息约100bp,但5月2日非农数据发布后,降息预期从...

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