金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，中国电力(02380)公布1-4月经营情况，期内总发电量同比微升0.3%。其中风/光发电同比上升32.1%/13.6%，水电在4月受来水量波动影响，单月出现较大的下降（同比/环比-53.3%/-26.5%）。136号文新政实施下，公司今年将优先在6月前并网资源良好的风电项目，该机构认为公司上半年风/光发电量仍有望高于往年同期，支撑整体发电量稳定增长。
该机构指，今年2季度内，该机构留意到内地动力煤价（港口及内陆地区）仍较今年3月底的水平下跌超过7%，公司上半年火电点价差或高于该机构预期约2%。考虑到夏季用电高峰期应有助内地动力煤价格回稳等因素，该机构下调2025年公司火电板块燃料成本预测1%至0.249人民币/千瓦时（同比降约8%）。
该机构上调2025/26年盈利预测1.0%/1.4%。另外，根据公司水电的重组方案资产注入估值，该机构上调水电板块估值标准至1.9倍2025年市帐率，该机构目标价上调至3.77港元（原3.51港元）。目前公司2025/26年6%/7%的股息率仍有吸引力，维持买入评级。
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