It's "TACO" Tuesday. The Stock Market Has a New Acronym to Rally Behind

Dow Jones
28 May

Stock market watchers like to invent nicknames for things, and sometimes they catch on big-time. The "TACO trade" is the latest example.

Analysts are attributing Tuesday's 741-point rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the forces behind this acronym, first deployed by a Financial Times columnist to describe the trend where President Donald Trump announces big tariffs on goods from other countries only to postpone or cut them hours or days later after a sharp market selloff.

Specifically the acronym means Trump Always Chickens Out.

Whether the TACO trade will rise to the stature of other market insider acronyms like FANG, FAANG, or the more recent moniker for top tech stocks, collectively called the Magnificent Seven, remains to be seen.

Tuesday's TACO trade dynamic began on Friday, when Trump called for 50% tariffs on goods from the European Union starting June 1. That announcement, apparently made in frustration over the lack of movement in trade talks, prompted the Dow Jones Industrial Average to fall 256 points, or 0.6%, the S&P 500 to sink 2.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite to fall 1%.

The out-of-left-field announcement left investors to stew over the long holiday weekend, when the stock market was closed an extra day.

But by Sunday evening, the TACO trade was back in play. Trump posted on his social media feed Sunday night that he had agreed to delay implementing the 50% levies on EU goods until July 9, at the request of EU President Ursula von der Leyen.

"It was my privilege to do so," Trump wrote Sunday. Von der Leyen in her own social media post said that Europe was ready to advance talks "swiftly and decisively."

True to form, stocks rallied on Tuesday, the week's first day of trading. IG Group chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp said: "TACO trade triumphs once again."

FT columnist Robert Armstrong wrote earlier this month that "the recent rally has a lot to do with markets realising that the US administration does not have a very high tolerance for market and economic pressure, and will be quick to back off when tariffs cause pain. This is the Taco theory: Trump Always Chickens Out."

The latest whipsaw in trade policy drew more mentions of the acronym.

Justin Wolfer, an economist and professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan's Ford School of public policy, notes the chaotic effect of Trump's back and forth policy pronouncements.

"Under no previous presidency did we have active markets betting on the President's resolve," Wolfers said. "There was no BACO trade, not CACO trade, nothing. It was always taken as a given that when the President spoke on Monday, he would likely still mean it on Tuesday. That's no longer true. But what's really hard is that it's not even obvious when it'll be true, and when it won't be. Madness."

Neil Wilson, a U.K. investor strategist for Saxo Markets in London, wrote in a note Friday about Trump's surprise 50% EU levies: "The hope and expectation remains, however, we see the TACO trade play out."

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