MW Despite tariff-related anxieties, few companies are pulling their forecasts

By Bill Peters

Earnings Watch: Costco and other retailers, along with Nvidia and Salesforce, also report during the week

As the twists and turns of President Donald Trump's tariff and trade actions make consumer demand harder to predict, some analysts have said companies could effectively stop trying to make those predictions, instead withdrawing their financial forecasts.

But so far, few of them have done so.

Of the 259 S&P 500 companies that have offered commentary on their profit outlook for the year, only eight have said they would withdraw or otherwise hold off on updating their full-year earnings-per-share forecasts, according to a FactSet analysis on Friday focused on companies that reported first-quarter results through May 22. Of those eight, six cited "uncertainty" directly or indirectly related to the tariffs, FactSet said.

Two of those companies were discount chain Ross Stores Inc. and Deckers Outdoor Corp., the maker of Uggs and Hokas. Retailers like those are where the trade war's impact on prices and consumer behavior could be the most visible.

"Heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty persists, most notably prolonged inflation and evolving trade policies," Ross Stores Inc. $(ROST)$ Chief Executive Jim Conroy said in a statement last week. Similarly, Deckers Outdoor Corp. $(DECK)$ last week also cited "macroeconomic uncertainty related to evolving global trade policies."

This week, executives from Costco Wholesale Corp. $(COST)$ are likely to weigh in on that subject, as well as on overall consumer demand, when the big-box retailer reports on Thursday.

Costco will report those results as lower- and higher-income shoppers alike seek out discounts, and as analysts say the biggest chains are best positioned to get bigger amid shoppers' struggles with price increases. UBS analyst Michael Lasser, in a research note last week, said Costco's "all-weather type characteristics" would give it an advantage over most other retailers in the current backdrop.

"Plus, its business model, low exposure to imports and merchandising strategy should minimize any impact from tariffs," he said.

"Keep in mind that the typical Costco carries around 3,800 items," he continued. "It can readily elect to eliminate a product that it can't carry at a compelling value with only a 10-15% markup. It has the agility to replace produce quickly, especially considering that it turns its inventory 12-13x per year."

Among other mass retailers, Walmart Inc. $(WMT)$ this month said it would have to raise prices in response to Trump's tariffs, to which the president reacted angrily. Target Corp. (TGT), meanwhile, said price increases were a last resort.

Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. $(DKS)$ and Foot Locker Inc. $(FL)$ report during the week, following a deal to combine. Macy's Inc. (M) and Kohl's Corp. $(KSS)$ also report, as the former tries to turn itself around and the latter deals with the the firing of its chief executive.

Results are also due from Abercrombie & Fitch Co. $(ANF)$, Bath & Body Works Inc. $(BBWI)$, Burlington Stores Inc. $(BURL)$, Best Buy Co. $(BBY)$, American Eagle Outfitters Inc. $(AEO)$, Ulta Beauty Inc. $(ULTA)$ and Gap Inc. $(GAP)$.

The call to put on your calendar

Nvidia: When artificial-intelligence chip-making giant Nvidia Corp. reports first-quarter results on Wednesday, Wall Street will, as always, be focused on AI demand and the company's ability to meet it, as big tech shovels billions of dollars into development and worries of an AI bubble endure. But after the U.S. last month put tough export restrictions on Nvidia's $(NVDA)$ H20 AI chips, effectively cutting off sales to China, some analysts say investors will likely be watching for details on what else the company can do to make up for potentially billions in lost sales.

"We believe the primary question around results and guidance is can [Nvidia] lift sales enough to offset the loss of H20/China business," Wedbush analysts said in a research note on Thursday.

The number to watch

Salesforce's sales and the agentic AI impact: In February, customer-service and workplace-management platform Salesforce Inc. $(CRM)$ offered a bold longer-term vision for its AI "agents," which work on tasks alongside humans. But it also said the sales bump from that technology would be limited this year, and its full-year forecast disappointed Wall Street. The company will get another chance to pitch investors when it reports results on Wednesday.

-Bill Peters

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May 27, 2025 14:46 ET (18:46 GMT)

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