《大行》汇丰研究:HIBOR下跌 低利率利好港股 特别是地产及高息板块

阿斯达克财经
30 May

汇丰环球研究发表报告指,HIBOR近期跌至2022年以来的最低水平,并接近三年低位。低利率环境降低企业和消费者的借贷成本,特别是按揭还款负担减轻。历史数据显示,低利率通常利好香港股市,尤其是地产、公用事业和房地产投资信托基金(REITs)等板块。
报告指,短期内,受套利交易及金管局为维护港元兑美元联系汇率而进行的入市干预影响,HIBOR可能回升,导致股市短期回调。但长远而言,美国联储局减息及本地流动性充裕将令HIBOR保持在较低水平,支持股市表现。

地产市场影响方面,报告指,低利率鼓励住宅物业买家入市,支持住宅市场复苏。但零售及商业物业因需求疲弱而持续面临挑战。至于对银行及高息依赖企业,持续低HIBOR可能压缩银行及依赖利息收入的企业盈利,对股价构成压力。
汇丰环球研究料,内地家庭持有大量现金,预计将继续增加对香港股市的投资,成为市场的重要推动力。港股平均股息率达5%,加上0.8%的股票回购,总现金回报接近6%,对收益型投资者具吸引力。(ha/w)

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