MW Airbnb's stock is now a sell, as a weak summer for leisure travel looms, analyst says

By Steve Gelsi

Volatility in consumer confidence is impacting the outlook for lodging companies, with mid-priced destinations expected to feel the biggest pinch

Reduced inbound international travel, along with volatility in business and consumer confidence, are weighing on the U.S. hotel business. That could last for the balance of 2025, analysts at Truist Securities said Friday.

Against this backdrop, analyst C. Patrick Scholes reduced most of his earnings projections for companies in the sector, and downgraded Airbnb Inc.'s stock $(ABNB)$ to sell from hold.

Scholes turned bearish because he believes Airbnb investors aren't fully appreciating the "soft summer leisure trends" for both the U.S. and Europe.

He cut the stock's price target to $106 a share from $112 a share, with the new target implying about 17% downside from Thursday's closing price.

Airbnb shares have slipped 2.3% in 2025 through Thursday, while the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF XLY, of which they are components, has declined 4.2%.

Based on an analysis of millions of U.S. hotel bookings from multiple sources and from conversations with industry executives, the analysts said the industry is facing a slowdown.

"The combination of volatility in consumer and business confidences, government segment cutbacks, and diminished inbound international travel are all manifesting in soft bookings," Truist analysts said.

Truist cut price targets on a number of other lodging companies, including Hyatt Hotels Corp. $(H)$ ($140 from $156), Choice Hotels International Inc. $(CHH)$ ($128 from $144), Diamondrock Hospitality Co. (DRH) ($9 from $10) and Marriott International Inc. $(MAR)$ ($273 from $300).

Even premium hotel chains are feeling the impact, although the softer bookings trend is more pronounced in moderately priced hotels, analysts said.

This trend is partly due to "middle-class leisure underperformance and greater exposure to government business" at mid-priced hotels.

Third-quarter revenue per available room, or RevPAR - a key metric in the hotel business - is likely to be softer than current Wall Street analyst expectations, analysts said.

-Steve Gelsi

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May 30, 2025 09:13 ET (13:13 GMT)

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