金吾财讯 | 开源证券研报指，金山软件(03888)Q1 WPS实现收入13.0亿元，同比增长6.2%，较此前数个季度降速明显，其中WPS个人业务同比增长10.9%，较2024年旧口径同期降速，“AI+出海”暂未在收入端体现拉动作用。根据此前金山办公股票激励方案，2025年总收入/WPS 365收入增速的激励触发值为8%/25%，目标值为10%/30%，结合一季度情况，该机构认为公司WPS增速有望达到目标值，但提速与变现节奏仍有待观察。该机构指，2025年Q1实现收入10.37亿元，同比增长13.7%，系《尘白禁区》与《剑网3》贡献，环比下滑19.7%系商业化内容发布较少，为季节性原因。《剑侠情缘·零》/《解限机》/《剑网3旗舰决定版》有望在5月底/7月/秋季上线，考虑到游戏上市节奏及去年的高基数，该机构预计游戏业务在Q2增长相对有限，或将于下半年提速，全年仍有望实现高基础下的稳健增长。其中《解限机》作为公司在机甲类板块的重要布局，市场热度高、公司在公测后进行多方优化，有望成为2025年游戏业务的重要支撑。尽管Q1 公司WPS个人业务增长降速、游戏去年高基数，但金山云减亏一定程度上释放利润弹性，该机构仅略微下调2025-2026归母净利润至20.0/24.2亿元（前次为20.5/24.5亿元），新增2027年预测28.4亿元，同比增长29.2%/20.6%/17.4%，当前股价对应PE估值为22.6/18.7/15.9倍。维持“买入”评级。
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