金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示，25H1内需有所回暖，价格端边际修复。该机构认为，中国政策端持续发力提振内需的大方向明确。同时在市场加剧波动、不确定性提升背景下，消费在过往几年的回调后，“低预期低估值”+“消费韧性特征下的企稳趋势”预计将提升消费配置的资金偏好。
有别于过去大基建时代的投资逻辑，当前消费领域呈现出三条趋势主线：1）回归理性、品质升级与消费平替并行；2）快乐生活、为精神满足感和情绪价值付费；3）技术进步和迭代催生的消费新方向，这将提供诸多长期结构性“新消费”机会，建议持续配置。至于传统消费，其经营端即使不考虑政策潜在拉动，多数子行业尤其是偏必需品行业基本面已在积极回升，25Q2有望成为多数消费行业的压力见底窗口。
该机构维持建议从攻守兼备配置渐进至弹性配置，攻守兼备：消费互联网、低估值高回报且经营有望率先企稳的乳制品、大众餐饮等板块。弹性配置：顺周期特征明显的餐饮供应链、酒类、人力资源服务、酒店等行业。该机构认为提振内需的政策预期将逐渐增强，消费配置表现有望迎来高潮，再次强调增配消费。
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