BlockBeats 消息，6 月 4 日，QCP 发布今日市场报告，就业岗位意外增加提振了风险情绪，为周五关键的非农就业数据公布做准备，标普 500 指数逐渐接近心理重要关口 6000 点。稳定的非农就业数据将巩固美联储关于劳动力市场韧性的叙述，进一步强化利率将维持不变的预期。
在贸易方面，市场在期待中美会谈前保持观望态度。比特币前端波动率已有所缓和，现货价格稳定在熟悉的 10.5 万美元附近；1 个月隐含波动率已滑落至 40 以下。比特币继续在区间内交易，持仓量较轻，偏度正常化表明方向性信念不足。自 5 月以来，波动率曲线从中端到后端趋平，反映出 VIX 的类似下降，促使了机会性多头波动率交易。值得注意的是，9 月 13 万美元看涨期权以 47 的波动率被买入，显示出第三季度看涨的局部兴趣。
展望未来第三季度可能更具挑战性。关税相关影响可能开始渗入宏观数据，而围绕“大美丽法案”（BBB）和债务上限的财政风险可能带来头条新闻波动。在缺乏明确催化剂的情况下，比特币不太可能显著突破当前区间。
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