【券商聚焦】太平洋证券维持农夫山泉(09633)“买入”评级 指包装水市场份额有望实现恢复

金吾财讯
03 Jun

金吾财讯 | 太平洋证券发研指,农夫山泉(09633)2024年实现总营收428.96亿元,同比+0.54%,实现归母净利润121.23亿元,同比+0.36%;2024H2实现总营收196.83亿元,同比-8.7%,归母净利润58.83亿元,同比-6.7%。该机构指,分产品来看,2024年公司包装水/茶饮料/功能饮料/果汁分别实现收入159.5/167.5/49.3/40.9亿元,分别同比-21.3%/32.3%/0.6%/15.6%,其中2024H2收入分别同比-24.4%/12.8%/-2.6%/6.6%,下半年包装水业务仍有较大幅度下滑,主因舆论事件影响持续,加上公司主动控制绿瓶纯净水库存水平,以保证红瓶天然水品牌调性。同时,茶饮料业务下半年增速有所放缓,主由2024年行业内部分品牌主动让价,价格竞争加剧所致。此外,果汁饮料延续稳健增长,预计主因产品迭代升级,同时水溶C100推新反馈较好,消费者对健康、天然果汁接受度逐步提升。该机构续指,展望2025年,预计包装水实现恢复性增长,公司正努力消除舆论事件影响,随包装水产品矩阵的逐步完善,包装水市场份额有望实现恢复。同时,预计公司仍以天然水品牌调性为先,适当减少对绿瓶纯净水的精力倾注。茶饮料方面,今年公司开启东方树叶开盖赢奖活动,兑奖数量超预期,面对行业竞争公司坚持以高品质定位拉开价值差距,预计公司将不以价格战形式换取短期销量增长,在品牌与品质的双重加持下,茶饮料业务有望延续超双位数的增长态势。该机构表示,预计公司2025-2027年实现收入483.9/544.9/608.3亿元,同比增长13%/13%/12%,实现利润137.9/155.4/174.4亿元,同比增长14%/13%/12%,对应PE为29/26/23X。按照2025年业绩给35倍PE,一年目标价为46.79港元,维持“买入”评级。

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