金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，腾讯音乐(01698)通过场外大宗交易从韩国娱乐公司HYBE收购SM娱乐约221万股份，交易完成后，腾讯音乐对SM娱乐持股9.38%，成为仅次于Kakao的第二大股东。另外，腾讯音乐与SM娱乐拓展版权以外合作，将共同打造中国偶像组合、发展IP 业务、拓展线下演出合作。展望未来，该机构维持音乐订阅收入稳健增长预期，预计2025年增16%，其中会员同比增6%，月ARPPU同比增10%，持续受益于减促及SVIP占比提升。预计非订阅收入增速快于订阅，2025年或增18%。该机构基本维持2025/26年经调整净利润预期，基于SOTP估值，上调未来12个月目标价至19美元/74港元（1698 HK），维持买入评级。未来季度间会员净增受运营节奏影响或有波动，但长期1.5亿会员及15元月ARPPU 可见性高。
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