智通财经APP获悉,煤炭股集体走低,截至发稿,兖矿能源(01171)跌3.22%,报9.02港元;中煤能源(01898)跌3.19%,报8.5港元;中国神华(01088)跌2.87%,报32.2港元;兖煤澳大利亚(03668)跌2.79%,报26.1港元。
消息面上,5月26日,全球动力煤价格跌至四年半以来的新低,价格仅为2022年能源危机峰值的四分之一,断崖式暴跌源于供应过剩和库存激增的双重打击,其中中国国内煤炭产量创历史新高,印度库存激增。分析师警告更大跌幅可能在或许还在后头。
方正证券指出,当前煤炭供需偏宽松,主要因为部分对煤炭需求较高的地产、基建等行业预期较弱,未来气温升高有望带来用煤需求的上涨,考虑到近期我国煤矿生产积极性降低、进口煤体量由增转降,煤价有望形成新支撑。我们认为公式定价的长协价格受影响较小,长协占比较高的神华、陕煤、中煤业绩稳定性较强。如果煤价在未来触底反弹,低估值弹性标的也有望迎来反弹。
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