US natgas prices edge up to 3-week high as output declines

Reuters
04 Jun
UPDATE 1-US natgas prices edge up to 3-week high as output declines

Canada AECO gas prices drop as wildfires rage

US daily gas output falls to 3-month low

Cheniere LNG export plants reduced for maintenance

Adds latest prices

By Scott DiSavino

June 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% to a three-week high on Tuesday as a drop in output in recent weeks offset forecasts for less demand and lower gas flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants over the next two weeks.

Gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.8 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $3.722 per million British thermal units, their highest close since May 9 for a second day in a row.

In Canada, where wildfires were raging across the country, spot gas prices at the AECO hub NG-ASH-ALB-SNL in Alberta fell to an eight-month low of just 6.3 cents per mmBtu in a sign that gas was trapped in the nation's biggest gas-producing province.

That compares with average AECO prices of $1.41 per mmBtu so far this year, 96 cents in 2024 and $2.28 over the prior five years (2019-2023).

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 104.0 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, down 105.2 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in March.

On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary three-month low of 102.9 bcfd on Tuesday, down from a 104.3 bcfd on Monday and an average of 105.3 bcfd over the prior seven days. Analysts noted preliminary data was often revised later in the day.

Energy traders said output reductions over the past month or so were primarily due to normal spring maintenance on gas pipelines. Energy firms usually work on gas pipes and other equipment in the spring and autumn when demand for the fuel for heating and cooling is low.

But, some analysts also noted that gas output could also be down as several energy firms cut spending on oil drilling due to a 13% decline in oil prices CLc1 so far this year. That drop in oil drilling also reduces the amount of gas pulled out of the ground associated with that oil production.

About 37% of U.S. gas production comes from associated gas, according to federal energy data.

LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 95.7 bcfd this week to 98.2 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.

The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 13.8 bcfd so far in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.

Energy traders said LNG feedgas reductions over the past month or so were primarily due to normal spring maintenance, including work at Cheniere Energy's LNG.N plants.

Gas flows to Cheniere's 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass in Louisiana have held at a 23-month low of around 3.1 bcfd since May 31, down from an average of 4.3 bcfd over the prior seven days, while feedgas to the company's 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi in Texas was on track to drop to a two-week low of 1.5 bcfd on Tuesday, down from a recent average of 2.1 bcfd from May 26-June 1.

Analysts have noted that gas flows to Sabine would likely remain reduced for about three weeks of maintenance from around May 31-June 22.

Week ended May 30 Forecast

Week ended May 23 Actual

Year ago May 30

Five-year average

May 30

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+109

+101

+94

+98

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,585

2,476

2,886

2,481

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

+4.2%

+3.9%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

3.71

3.69

2.81

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

11.83

11.73

10.87

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

12.30

12.16

12.30

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

11

12

10

18

22

U.S. GFS CDDs

162

160

160

143

133

U.S. GFS TDDs

173

172

170

161

155

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

105.4

104.6

104.8

101.2

96.8

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.0

7.5

7.2

N/A

7.3

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

113.4

112.1

112.0

N/A

104.1

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.6

1.7

1.7

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.4

7.3

7.3

N/A

6.3

U.S. LNG Exports

15.1

13.9

14.4

13.2

9.1

U.S. Commercial

5.0

4.7

4.5

4.5

4.8

U.S. Residential

4.8

4.1

3.8

3.8

4.3

U.S. Power Plant

31.6

34.5

37.1

37.0

38.0

U.S. Industrial

22.4

22.3

22.2

21.6

21.5

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

U.S. Pipe Distribution

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.8

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

71.0

72.9

74.9

74.1

76.8

Total U.S. Demand

95.0

95.7

98.2

N/A

88.2

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

79

79

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

80

80

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

82

82

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Jun 6

Week ended May 30

2024

2023

2022

Wind

8

10

11

10

11

Solar

9

8

5

4

3

Hydro

8

8

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

39

39

42

41

38

Coal

15

15

16

17

21

Nuclear

20

19

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

3.00

2.86

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.74

1.65

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.29

3.15

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.63

1.55

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

2.48

2.40

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

2.71

2.21

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

3.41

3.10

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

1.67

1.59

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.63

0.78

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

30.50

32.00

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

31.06

33.29

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

46.18

40.09

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

39.60

36.01

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

23.36

20.27

(Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Nick Zieminski and Marguerita Choy)

((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))

For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

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