Canada AECO gas prices drop as wildfires rage
US daily gas output falls to 3-month low
Cheniere LNG export plants reduced for maintenance
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
June 3 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures edged up about 1% to a three-week high on Tuesday as a drop in output in recent weeks offset forecasts for less demand and lower gas flows to liquefied natural gas $(LNG)$ export plants over the next two weeks.
Gas futures NGc1 for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 2.8 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $3.722 per million British thermal units, their highest close since May 9 for a second day in a row.
In Canada, where wildfires were raging across the country, spot gas prices at the AECO hub NG-ASH-ALB-SNL in Alberta fell to an eight-month low of just 6.3 cents per mmBtu in a sign that gas was trapped in the nation's biggest gas-producing province.
That compares with average AECO prices of $1.41 per mmBtu so far this year, 96 cents in 2024 and $2.28 over the prior five years (2019-2023).
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to 104.0 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, down 105.2 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in March.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a preliminary three-month low of 102.9 bcfd on Tuesday, down from a 104.3 bcfd on Monday and an average of 105.3 bcfd over the prior seven days. Analysts noted preliminary data was often revised later in the day.
Energy traders said output reductions over the past month or so were primarily due to normal spring maintenance on gas pipelines. Energy firms usually work on gas pipes and other equipment in the spring and autumn when demand for the fuel for heating and cooling is low.
But, some analysts also noted that gas output could also be down as several energy firms cut spending on oil drilling due to a 13% decline in oil prices CLc1 so far this year. That drop in oil drilling also reduces the amount of gas pulled out of the ground associated with that oil production.
About 37% of U.S. gas production comes from associated gas, according to federal energy data.
LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, will rise from 95.7 bcfd this week to 98.2 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were lower than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. fell to 13.8 bcfd so far in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
Energy traders said LNG feedgas reductions over the past month or so were primarily due to normal spring maintenance, including work at Cheniere Energy's LNG.N plants.
Gas flows to Cheniere's 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass in Louisiana have held at a 23-month low of around 3.1 bcfd since May 31, down from an average of 4.3 bcfd over the prior seven days, while feedgas to the company's 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi in Texas was on track to drop to a two-week low of 1.5 bcfd on Tuesday, down from a recent average of 2.1 bcfd from May 26-June 1.
Analysts have noted that gas flows to Sabine would likely remain reduced for about three weeks of maintenance from around May 31-June 22.
Week ended May 30 Forecast | Week ended May 23 Actual | Year ago May 30 | Five-year average May 30 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +109 | +101 | +94 | +98 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,585 | 2,476 | 2,886 | 2,481 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +4.2% | +3.9% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.71 | 3.69 | 2.81 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 11.83 | 11.73 | 10.87 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 12.30 | 12.16 | 12.30 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 11 | 12 | 10 | 18 | 22 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 162 | 160 | 160 | 143 | 133 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 173 | 172 | 170 | 161 | 155 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 105.4 | 104.6 | 104.8 | 101.2 | 96.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.2 | N/A | 7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 113.4 | 112.1 | 112.0 | N/A | 104.1 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.4 | 7.3 | 7.3 | N/A | 6.3 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 15.1 | 13.9 | 14.4 | 13.2 | 9.1 |
U.S. Commercial | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
U.S. Residential | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 31.6 | 34.5 | 37.1 | 37.0 | 38.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.4 | 22.3 | 22.2 | 21.6 | 21.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 71.0 | 72.9 | 74.9 | 74.1 | 76.8 |
Total U.S. Demand | 95.0 | 95.7 | 98.2 | N/A | 88.2 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 79 | 79 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 80 | 80 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 82 | 82 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jun 6 | Week ended May 30 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 8 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 9 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 39 | 39 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 15 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 20 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 3.00 | 2.86 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.74 | 1.65 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 3.29 | 3.15 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.63 | 1.55 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.48 | 2.40 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 2.71 | 2.21 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.41 | 3.10 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.67 | 1.59 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.63 | 0.78 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 30.50 | 32.00 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 31.06 | 33.29 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 46.18 | 40.09 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 39.60 | 36.01 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 23.36 | 20.27 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino, Editing by Nick Zieminski and Marguerita Choy)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
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For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html
For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG
For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR
For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL
For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/
For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC
For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44
For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS
For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER
To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)
NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651
NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651
ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391
NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B
NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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