Bitcoin price may be gearing up for its next major breakout, with a key long-term indicator flashing for the first time since mid-2024. According to analysis from Stockmoney Lizards, this could mirror BTC’s historic rallies in 2016 and 2020.
Still, with prices testing late-2024 support and signs of profit-taking, a deeper pullback might come before bulls regain momentum. Meanwhile, the SEC is moving to drop its lawsuit against Binance, marking a potential shift in U.S. crypto regulation.
In this recap, we explore what these developments mean for Bitcoin’s path, market sentiment, and the broader crypto narrative.
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Bitcoin could surge to $200,000 in 2025, driven by a key bullish signal from its "cleanest trend indicator," the Optimized Trend Tracker (OTT), according to analysts at Stockmoney Lizards. This indicator, which accurately predicted major cycle tops in 2016 and 2020, has just flashed a breakout, suggesting Bitcoin’s next major leg up is underway. After retesting support zones, BTC has broken above the OTT bands again—an event that historically precedes massive rallies. While some analysts expect a conservative target of $120K to $130K, Stockmoney Lizards sees a potential climb to $200K–$250K as price discovery resumes.
At the Bitcoin 2025 conference in Las Vegas, U.S. Vice President JD Vance delivered a powerful message urging the Bitcoin community to stay politically engaged. Emphasizing Bitcoin's growing geopolitical and economic influence, Vance warned that ignoring politics could jeopardize the future of digital innovation. He called on crypto advocates to extend their political momentum beyond 2024, stressing that government decisions will inevitably impact Bitcoin’s trajectory. Vance reinforced the idea that the U.S. must lead in crypto to stay globally competitive, as a worldwide race for Bitcoin among nations intensifies. His speech highlighted the crucial connection between cryptocurrency and policymaking.
Circle, the company behind USDC—the world’s second-largest stablecoin—is officially moving ahead with its IPO on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker CRCL. The offering includes 24 million Class A shares, comprising 9.6 million from Circle and 14.4 million from existing shareholders, priced between $24 and $26 per share. Backed by major U.S. and European banks, the IPO is expected to raise to $624 million and aims for a valuation of $6.7 billion. This move reflects Circle’s commitment to transparency as it seeks to become a publicly traded company amid growing institutional interest, including from ARK Invest.
FTX has begun a second round of payouts totaling $5 billion to eligible creditors through its Recovery Trust, with distributions ranging from 54% to 120% depending on the claim type. These reimbursements, processed via Kraken and Bitgo, follow a $1.2 billion payout in February. However, controversy surrounds the plan, as creditors are being reimbursed based on crypto prices from the 2022 market crash, not current values, leaving many with only 10–25% of what their assets are worth today. The development has sparked speculation that the influx of funds could return to crypto markets, potentially triggering new waves of volatility.
In a major move, the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance clarified that most protocol staking on proof-of-stake blockchains doesn't qualify as a securities offering. The guidance states that staking rewards are earned for providing a service, not from others’ efforts, thus avoiding securities law requirements. Custodial staking and related administrative tasks, such as slashing or early unbonding, were also deemed non-securities. Commissioner Hester Peirce welcomed the clarity, highlighting its importance for decentralization and participation. However, Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw criticized the statement, arguing it ignores legal precedent and fails to provide a solid framework under existing securities law.
In a surprising reversal, Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG) has confirmed a $2.5 billion capital raise to invest in Bitcoin, just one day after denying reports. The funding includes a $1.5B stock sale and $1B in convertible bonds, with CEO Devin Nunes calling Bitcoin “an apex instrument of financial freedom.” Despite the move, TMTG shares dropped over 12% post-announcement. The decision aligns TMTG with a growing wave of corporations adding Bitcoin to their treasuries, signaling a shift toward digital assets as a hedge against financial censorship and institutional bias.
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