金吾财讯 | 交银国际发布房地产行业下半年展望，中国内地房地产行业显现“止跌回稳”迹象。2025年前四个月全国新建商品房销售额达27,035亿元人民币，同比降幅收窄至3.2%。尽管局部供需失衡，但住宅市场有望在2025年趋于稳定，预计全年新房销售额在8万亿至8.5万亿元。政策层面，下半年可能延续收储政策、盘活存量土地、支持现房销售、微调住房金融政策及推动租赁市场发展。投资建议方面，优先推荐估值较低的国企背景开发商，其次为拥有一、二线城市土储的民营龙头，其他民企开发商排名最后。2025 年香港房地产市场面临宏观不确定性，但关键利好因素正在显现。人口回升、HIBOR 大幅下降有望稳定住宅市场，预计2025 下半年至2027 年住宅价格分别增长3%、5%和5%。零售板块因本地及旅客消费习惯变化承压，但北上消费趋势缓解租金压力，整体调整温和。办公楼市场因空置率高位及新项目落成，反弹空间有限，仍需谨慎观望。该机构指，降息及HIBOR下行将成为未来12-18个月的潜在催化剂，推动本地收租股及REITs估值提升。短期港股通可能纳入REITs，进一步促进行业重估。香港房地产行业偏好排序为：零售REITs > 低负债住宅开发商 > 零售物业持有者 > 办公楼业务占比高的REITs/开发商。领展(00823)作为首选标的。
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