The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1330 ET - One rationale for the Fed's decentralized decision-making system: the system's regional reserve-bank presidents' deep familiarity with local economic conditions. But do regional trends inform their votes? In a letter published by the San Francisco Fed, researchers examined the policy votes of Fed reserve-bank presidents between 1990 and 2017. They found that a 1 percentage-point higher unemployment rate in a president's district--compared with the national average--was associated with a 9 percentage-point higher probability of the Fed president's dissenting in favor of looser monetary policy. "Unemployment data likely reinforce District presidents' direct observations of their own regional economies, and this combined information may be particularly salient in forming their expectations about the direction of the national economy," the researchers write. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

1301 ET - Fed Chair Jerome Powell begins remarks at a Federal Reserve conference by remembering Stanley Fischer, an influential economist and leading former policymaker who died Saturday. "Stan was a colleague of ours at the Fed, and a giant in the field of international economics," Powell says. "In addition to reaching the highest levels of the field in his own right, he was a trusted and generous mentor and teacher to a generation of the most important economic thinkers, including many heads of global central banks, advisers to presidents, and countless economists." Fischer's former students include former U.S. Treasury secretary Larry Summers and former Fed chairman Ben Bernanke. (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @matt.grossman)

0925 ET - U.S. natural gas futures start the week higher as the market drifts into the summer season with expectations of greater demand. A slightly bullish weather outlook coupled with lower production and a jump in Plaquemines LNG feedgas are driving the early rebound, Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. "Short-covering is amplifying upside," he says. "Weak cash may weigh on near-term futures into mid-June, but the gas market could price in upside in anticipation of mid-summer tightening." Nymex natural gas is up 8.2% at $3.729/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0843 ET - Oil futures add to overnight gains after OPEC+ agreed at the weekend to unwind another 411,000 barrels a day of output cuts in July, which was widely expected and largely priced in. Geopolitical premium increased as Ukrainian launched drone attacks against Russia, while a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal still appears elusive. The OPEC decision is driving prices up "and from a technical standpoint, creating the potential for a short-term rally that may last a few days," Spartan Capital's Peter Cardillo says in a note. "However, we do not anticipate a sustained rally, as oversupply continues to be a concern." WTI is up 4.7% at $63.65 a barrel, and Brent is 4.2% higher at $65.40 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0713 ET - Oil prices rise, with Brent crude up 3.8% at $65.17 a barrel and WTI up 4.2% at $63.35 a barrel. Oil surged after Ukraine launched drone attacks deep inside Russian territory, raising the possibility of energy flow disruption. This has more than offset OPEC+'s quota increase of 411,000 barrels of oil a day for the month of July, Morgan Stanley analysts say in a note. As the supply hike was in line with market expectations it should leave oil prices unaffected in the short term, the analysts say. Still, the prospect of a growing surplus of oil toward the end of 2025 remains intact. With no signs of slowing quota increases from OPEC+, Brent crude could trade in the mid-$50 a barrel range by the first half of 2026, MS adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0609 ET - The start-up of Galp's Bacalhau project in Brazil could be another catalyst for its shares, UBS analysts write. The Portuguese oil company's production in the country has been relatively stable over the past four years, they write. This is because of maintenance and aging assets, they add. However, the Bacalhau project should start soon and production should grow at a compound annual growth rate of 14% through to 2027, they write. Production should reach a plateau towards the end of 2026 before eventually declining, they write. Shares trade up 3.3% at 14.51. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0545 ET - Galp's Mopane discovery off Namibia could start generating positive free cash flow in the mid 2030's, UBS analysts write. The discovery could hold more than 10 billion oil equivalent barrels and could boost Galp's production by 135,000 barrels a day, they write. Galp is looking for a partner to invest in the project, they write. Any announcement is likely to be a positive catalyst for the stock, they add. Shares trade up 2.6% at 14.4 euros. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0513 ET - Some Anglo American investors might view their new Valterra Platinum shares as a special dividend and opt to sell them, investment director at AJ Bell Russ Mould writes. Some shareholders might not want to hold investments in a single commodity company and could therefore liquidate their position, he adds. Anglo American retains a 19.9% stake for now but plans on selling this down over time, he adds. Valterra's shares trade around 2,860 pence.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0504 ET - Galp's Mopane discovery in Namibia has the potential to nearly double its share price over the next five years, UBS analysts write in a research note. Shares in the Portuguese oil company are down nearly 30% from last year's high as the market becomes increasingly skeptical about its discovery, they say. However, data shows it has the making of a large commercial discovery, they say. The analysts upgrade their rating of the stock to buy from neutral and set a target price of 20 euros a share, up from 15 euros previously. Shares trade up 2.95% at 14.46 euros. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0352 ET - Oil prices rise on flaring geopolitical tensions, shrugging off a largely expected OPEC+ agreement to hike production in July. Brent crude is up 2.2% at $64.18 a barrel, while WTI gains 2.6% to $62.36 a barrel. Oil is up on rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as Ukraine launched drone attacks deep inside Russian territory. This has offset OPEC+'s additional 411,000 barrels of oil a day production increase for July, which was widely priced in, Swissquote Bank's Ipek Ozkardeskaya says in a note. The market's kneejerk reaction to the hike in fact appears positive on relief the number matches earlier guidance rather than exceeds it, Ozkardeskaya says. That said, oil price rallies driven by geopolitical concerns tend to be short-lived in the absence of significant escalations, she adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)

0321 ET - Orsted is likely to book another 1.2 billion Danish kroner ($182.6 million) impairment charge in 2Q after President Trump announced the doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50% from 25%, Citi analysts say in a note. The company took a similar hit as part of its 1Q earnings linked to the U.S. government's 25% tariff on imports of steel and aluminium--and certain products containing them--citing increased costs and contingencies stemming from its wind projects. "We continue to wait for clarity around the outcome of US-EU tariff negotiation, which Orsted said a 20% tariff could add around 600 million Danish kroner, which has yet to be recognized in its accounts," Citi says. In April President Trump threatened a 20% reciprocal tariff on EU imports unless a deal was reached after a 90-day negotiation period. (anthony.orunagoriainoff@dowjones.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 02, 2025 13:30 ET (17:30 GMT)

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