金吾财讯 | 交银国际发布医药行业下半年展望，板块行情稳中向好，2H25继续把握创新+高增长两条主线：2025年有望成为关键转折之年：1)政策短期扰动基本出清，更多利好政策有望落地；2)行业未来两年盈利高增长确定性强，短期盈利预测逐步上修；3)创新药出海热潮延续。对于2H25的板块表现和选股逻辑，该机构判断：1)宏观环境复苏+降息周期+政策利好有望驱动β机会；2)后续α机会将来自当前仍被低估、长期增长空间清晰、催化剂丰富的个股。该机构指，创新药—出海交易和业绩表现驱动价值回归：该机构预计头部生物科技企业将集中迎来盈亏平衡转折点。推荐康方生物(09926)、荣昌生物(09995)、科伦博泰(06990)。处方药—关注短期业绩增速和长期创新增值空间：港股龙头收入/净利润有望重回/稳定双位数增速；管线推进，重磅数据读出和出海交易落地有望推动创新平台价值兑现和估值溢价。重点推荐先声药业(02096)。CXO—底部反转进行时：1Q25A股龙头CXO业绩已开启反弹通道。该机构推荐细分赛道龙头标的药明合联(02268)和金斯瑞(01548)。民营医院—优选高质量民营医院标的：该机构推荐短期增长确定性强、长期扩张路径清晰且天花板可观的固生堂(02273)和海吉亚医疗(06078)，同时关注政策红利效应显著的锦欣生殖(1951)。
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