转自:新华财经
新华财经北京6月5日电 在最新的经济展望报告中,德意志银行重申其对欧洲央行(ECB)货币政策的预期。尽管该行认为宽松周期的终端利率应保持在1.50%,但同时也警告称这一周期结束的时间点可能比之前预想的要早。
德意志银行预计,市场关注点将逐渐从近期的降息转向未来几年可能出现的紧缩措施。此外,该行对其欧元区经济增长预期进行了积极调整,将2025年的GDP增长预期由原先的0.5%上调至0.8%。
不过,德意志银行也指出,预计2025年的通胀率仍将低于欧洲央行设定的2%目标水平,这意味着存在进一步降息的空间。即便如此,考虑到当前经济环境的变化,德意志银行承认其对于1.50%作为最终利率的预期正在减弱。
德意志银行认为2026年将是关键的一年,并预测届时欧洲央行可能会启动新一轮加息周期,预计到2026年底政策利率将被提升至1.75%。
编辑:崔凯
责任编辑:郭建
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