华泰证券研报称，需求偏弱叠加新产能投放等致化工整体价差仍偏弱，但2025年下半年伴随需求复苏及资本开支显著降速叠加供给侧自主调整，化工周期品有望迎来复苏拐点。油价短期面临需求担忧及供给协同趋弱压力，成本减压及需求改善或助力下游环节延续复苏态势。板块而言，油价中长期存底部支撑，且龙头企业降本增量；大宗化工关注格局率先优化的品种及龙头企业价值修复机遇；下游制品/精细品需求改善和毛利率修复并行，叠加出口/出海和新技术驱动；优质重资产化工企业有望现金流改善及分红意愿提升。
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