《大行》交银国际建议把握高股息主线 关注国有行和招行(03968.HK) 内险荐平安(02318.HK)等

阿斯达克财经
05 Jun

交银国际发表报告,预计中资金融股高股息策略的支撑因素进一步强化,建议把握高股息主线。该行认为支撑高股息策略的核心因素仍然成立,特朗普政府的关税政策及其高不确定性加剧了经济和资本市场波动,使得高股息资产的吸引力进一步凸显。
从盈利预期来看,该行预计2025年证券行业(按年增长20%)>银行业(保持平稳)>保险行业(高基数上有小幅下降压力)。从估值水平来看,证券板块估值处于偏低水平,预计在盈利较好增速的支撑下,具备估值修覆空间;保险板块兼具防御性与弹性;银行板块仍具低估值、高股息属性。展望下半年,建议把握高股息主线,优先考虑高股息属性,同时适当配置非银板块中估值偏低,兼具弹性的稳健型标的,守正出奇。
保险行业方面,交银国际指,资产、负债表现分化,当前估值水平上兼具防御性与弹性。推荐平安(02318.HK) 、太保(02601.HK) 中国财险(02328.HK) 
银行业方面,交银国际指,拨备贡献盈利呈现分化态势,高股息策略驱动因素进一步强化。建议继续关注拨备仍有释放空间的标的,继续关注国有行和招行(03968.HK) 
证券行业方面,交银国际预计2025年盈利趋势向好,估值处于偏低水平。推荐业务结构较为均衡的龙头券商,维持中信证券(06030.HK) 华泰证券(06886.HK) “买入”评级。(ha/u)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-06-04 16:25。)

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