花旗：维持龙源电力(00916)“买入”评级目标价7.1港元

智通财经

Jun 10, 2025

智通财经APP获悉，花旗发布研报称，维持龙源电力(00916)“买入”评级，目标价7.1港元。公司5月总发电量同比增长1.5%至66.8亿千瓦时，其中风电及太阳能发电量分别同比增长8.7%及74.8%，主要受惠于新增产能带动。由于公司在2024年下半年出售所有燃煤发电厂，令5月燃煤发电量为零，相比去年同期为8.3亿千瓦时。

报告指出，今年首5个月总发电量同比下跌1.5%至338.7亿千瓦时，当中风电及太阳能发电量分别同比增长6.4%及64.4%，但未能完全抵消燃煤发电量减少的影响。该行估计，龙源电力5月风电场平均利用小时数同比下跌0.8%至182小时，首5个月则同比下跌2.9%至958小时，主要受风速减弱及电网限电影响。5月风电输出量增长最多的地区为山西(同比增长64%)、河南(同比增长50%)及江西(同比增长47%)，而福建及新疆则分别同比下跌34%及33%。

该行认为，江苏省月度竞价市场电价下跌对龙源电力影响有限。江苏省6月份竞价市场电价同比下跌23.7%至每兆瓦时312.8元人民币，参与竞价的总发电量为48.8亿千瓦时，其中风电仅占0.06亿千瓦时或1.2%。龙源电力在2024年及2025年第一季度在江苏省的风电输出量分别为82.1亿千瓦时及33.9亿千瓦时，分别占其总风电输出量的9.7%及11.6%。该行预计，龙源电力2025年风电及太阳能电价将分别同比下跌3%及4%，但认为其0.7倍2025年预测市净率及8.8%的股本回报率仍具吸引力。

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