Odaily星球日报讯 QCP Capital 在官方频道发文表示，“随着夏季临近，比特币（BTC）维持在狭窄区间内运行，隐含波动率持续承压。尽管当前的隐含波动率处于一年低点，从表面看似“便宜”，但实际波动率更低。过去两年的历史数据显示，短期期权波动率在每年七月前往往还会进一步下滑。类似走势曾出现在去年同期。若比特币价格能明确突破 10 万美元下方或 11 万美元上方，可能会重新点燃市场的广泛兴趣。但目前来看，并无明显的短期催化剂能够推动这一走势。 尽管近期宏观消息曾引发短暂波动，但多数被市场视为“噪音”，迅速消退，未能引发方向性突破。即使上周五美国就业数据好于预期，带动美股上涨、黄金下跌，比特币依旧波澜不惊，陷于多重宏观因素交错影响中，缺乏明确方向锚定。若没有令人信服的叙事驱动新一轮上涨行情，市场正显现出疲态。永续合约未平仓量正在减少，现货比特币 ETF 的资金流入也已开始放缓。过去一周的期权交易也反映了市场这种观望状态。我们看到大量 7 月到期的上行看涨期权被移仓至 9 月，且交易规模不小，显示出投资者正将看涨预期推迟到更远的时间点。”
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