瑞达期货:需求预期转冷 集运期价震荡幅度大

金十财经
Yesterday

【瑞达期货:需求预期转冷 集运期价震荡幅度大】金十期货6月9日讯,MSC、赫伯罗特、达飞、现代商船、长荣海运等相继宣涨亚欧航线运价至3000-3300美金/FEU,小幅支撑期价,但加征关税所带来的负面影响仍未改善。最新SCFIS欧线结算运价指数为1252.82,较上周回升5.77点,环比上行0.5%。1. 美国总统特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从25%提高至50%,该关税政策自美国东部时间2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。美联储最新公布的“褐皮书”显示,美国经济活动自上次报告以来略有下降,企业和消费者面临政策不确定性上升、物价压力加大的压力,整体经济前景仍显悲观。此外,尽管欧洲制造业PMI有所回升,但难以扭转整体需求偏弱格局。2. 欧洲央行将存款机制利率下调25个基点至2%,为连续第7次降息,以此应对通胀水平上涨及加征关税影响。中美贸易摩擦及美国潜在对欧贸易打击的风险,增加了欧元区未来增长的不确定性。在美欧利差走扩的情形下,中长期欧元存在持续走弱的可能。3. 在此背景下,贸易战不确定性尚存,集运指数(欧线)需求预期转冷,期价震荡幅度大。接下来,贸易战长期能否如预期般好转仍需观察,建议投资者谨慎为主,注意操作节奏及风险控制,应及时跟踪地缘、运力与货量数据。

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