智通财经APP获悉,普徕仕资本市场策略师Tim Murray认为,美联储仍将依据经济数据调整货币政策,避免前瞻性指引,并会继续谨慎避免任何可能被解读为带有政治倾向的表述。美联储认为减息并非消除不确定因素的最有效办法。另外,由于关税可能推高通胀,美联储对减息仍持审慎态度。
鉴于美联储政策工具对经济有滞后影响,当局的决策必须以预测为基础。然而,在当前经济高度不明朗的环境下(尤其是增长和通胀趋势方面),要对相关预测有足够信心实属困难。因此,预计短期内美联储不会以减息的形式出手托市。美联储必须维持观望,直至不确定性消退(使其能作出更有把握的预测),或劳动力市场出现明显转弱。
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