Inflation data followed by a hotly watched auction of a 10-year debt could awaken a sleepy bond market on Wednesday.
Traders work at the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday.
The Treasury market has been in a holding pattern. Ten-year yields, which move opposite to bond prices, have traded within a tight range of 4.316% to 4.517% in June. Yields were on a roller-coaster ride in April and May, triggered by tariff news.
Against this backdrop comes the consumer price data Wednesday morning followed by the sale of $39 billion worth of 10-year debt at 1 p.m. Eastern—both hold the potential to jolt yields.
The Treasury routinely sells bonds or debt to fund the government. Appetite for investor demand at recent auctions has been a concern, given that foreign investors finance a large portion of the nation’s debt and investors fear that U.S. trade policies could scare them away. Last month, a 20-year Treasury auction showcased investor angst as yields rose after a poor reception.
“Investors are eager for any sign that demand for Treasuries has materially fallen based on the trade war,” wrote Ian Lyngen, head of U.S. rates strategy on Monday.
Yet, if one goes by the performance of latest 10-year sales, inflation may matter more. The May and April 10-year auctions were solid, with higher-than-average foreign participations while March saw a decent uptake as well.
“We continue to note that auction statistics have remained solid post-April Liberation Day,” wrote U.K. bank NatWest, adding that it expects the auctions to be influenced by the inflation data.
When inflation comes in higher than expected, it generally pushes bond yields higher. That’s because the fixed interest that bonds pay to its buyers loses its attractiveness.
To be sure, the inflation consensus is relatively muted as economists forecast a 0.2% increase month over month, according to FactSet. But investors are wary that initial signs of tariff-related inflation may show up.
In the chance that the bond auction goes poorly and inflation is higher than expected, it would be a double whammy that could push bond yields up sharply.