金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指，作为全球第二大债券市场，日本超长债收益率的快速上涨，折射出全球债券市场在财政扩张与央行政策分化背景下的结构性变化。在关税贸易政策不确定性持续的当下，市场对各国财政政策进一步宽松的预期正推高风险溢价，或预示着全球长端利率重估周期的来临。该机构指，随着关税风险放缓，以及美国经济基本面仍具韧性，降息预期重新锚定为美债利率提供了向上推力。与此同时，预计美国3季度债务上限问题解决后，美国财政部需要在2-3个月内完成3000-4000亿美元的净发行规模，以重建现金缓冲，供给压力下，10年期美债利率或将重新上探前高。此外，特朗普减税增支法案的政策预期正在发酵，市场对中长期财政可持续性的担忧或带来短期情绪化反应，进一步推升期限溢价水平。在供需持续失衡格局下，预计美债10年期利率在2025年底前将维持在4.05.0%的宽幅震荡区间，中枢水平较当前有进一步上移的可能。
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