智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，我国未来钢铁消费结构将从建筑业向制造业转移，行业转型过程中建议关注下游以制造业为主、需求较为稳定的低估值高分红板材标的。同时中长期来看，能源、新基建、航空航天、国防等领域消费的特种钢材也成为钢铁消费的重要力量，故建议关注受益下游油气领域高景气的高端不锈钢管材标的久立特材。
报告中称，自2024年下半年钢铁行业触底以来，三重因素推动下，行业格局预期改善。
1)供给端，政策限产+部分企业现金流压力推动行业供给加快出清。碳中和背景下，政策端明确钢铁去产量为中长期基调，节能降碳要求有望加快落后产能出清，供给端行业的兼并重组有望推动未来集中度的提升。
2)需求端，制造业需求有韧性，支撑板材和特钢景气度。宏观政策利好助力建筑需求企稳，同时制造业需求有较强韧性，未来仍然看好板材与特钢板块的盈利能力。
3)成本端，原料价格中枢下行，产业链利润分配趋于合理。西芒杜铁矿预期将于2025年投产，铁矿供给有较大增长，同时钢铁供给端承压制约铁矿需求，预计后续铁矿石价格中枢回落，推动钢企利润修复。
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