大摩:上调友邦保险(01299)目标价至90港元 最“牛”见105港元 评级为“增持”

智通财经
Jun 11, 2025

智通财经APP获悉,摩根士丹利发表报告,基于权重调整和模型更新,将友邦保险(01299)目标价由81港元,调高11%至90港元,并将最乐观(最牛)目标价,由103港元,调高1.94%至105港元,投资评级为“增持”。大摩设定基准情境(维持不变)的机率权重为50%,牛市情境(先前为15%)的机率权重为30%,熊市情境(先前为35%)的机率权重为20%,这反映了市场情绪的改善以及友邦稳健的基本面。

该行预期,友邦新业务价值(VNB)的健康增长可能会持续到第二季度,近期股市的利好以及中国稳定的利率环境也可能利好友邦的关键财务指标。此外,友邦计划于7月完成16亿美元的回购,占其每日交易量的10-30%,可能会支撑其近期的股价。

大摩指,友邦首财季新业务价值增长率达13%,表现不俗,高于该行及市场预期5-6个百分点。因此,大摩轻微上调了友邦2025财年新业务价值增长率1.3个百分点至13.3%(以固定汇率计算);预计2025-27财年营业利润(OPAT)将调高0.5-1.2%。2025-2027财年,企业价值每股盈利(EVPS)预计上涨0.3-0.6%,每股盈利(EPS)预计上涨1.8-2.4%。

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