Al Root

The biennial Paris Air show, a premier aerospace junket with hundreds of top executives wining and dining each other, kicks off on June 16. This show isn't expected to have a splashy announcement of an all-new commercial airliner. There haven't been many of those lately, leaving investors wondering, where have all the new planes gone?

There are a few reasons that new platform introductions have ground to a halt. A couple have actually helped Boeing in its multiyear turnaround process.

Typically, over the past 60-plus years, Boeing and Airbus, combined, have announced a new plane program every three years. That pace stretches back to the late 1950s, when Boeing announced its 707. The 737 in 1965. The ill-fated Airbus A380 was announced, at the Farnborough Airshow, in 1990, 21 years after the Boeing 747 was introduced. The troubled 737 MAX was announced in 2011 after Airbus announced its incredibly successful A320neo program in 2010, which led to a record-breaking 2011 Paris Air Show for the company.

There hasn't been a new plane program announced in more than a decade. Boeing announced the 777x in 2013. That jet still isn't certified for service, impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic and Boeing's internal issues. Airbus announced the A321XLR in 2019, but that is a derivative of the A321neo jet. Even if investors want to consider the XLR a new program, it has still been years since the industry was abuzz with a new commercial jetliner.

Covid and Boeing's problems, of course, are part of the reason for the innovation deceleration.

The pandemic essentially cost the industry four years of growth. It also led to significant employee turnover, upset supply chains, and hurt the airframers' ability to build as many planes as they wanted.

The result? Ballooning backlogs with customers clamoring to get their new jets. "We are years into a supply-constrained, not a demand-constrained environment," says AeroDynamic Advisory managing director Richard Aboulafia. In Paris this year, "orders are for tourists, professionals [will] focus on supply chain."

As for Boeing, two tragic 737 MAX crashes as well as Covid-19 has left the company without a profitable year since 2018. The balance sheet was only recently repaired after selling stock and assets.

For Boeing to do a new plane, the market, technology, and Boeing's balance sheet have to be ready, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg recently told Aviation Week. "We're not ready on any of those work streams today."

Boeing's balance sheet could arguably handle new plane development now, but technology represents an interesting barrier. The industry appears to be waiting for a step change in engine efficiency to help kick-start new plan programs.

Engines on a modern airliners are called high-bypass turbofans. There is a big fan at the front of the engine that travelers are familiar with. Behind that fan is a compressor and turbine that generates additional thrust. Better turbofans have been developed since the 1960s, but incremental improvements are yielding smaller benefits over time.

Some of the problem is just math. A 20% improvement for an engine that burns, say, 15,000 gallons of jet fuel on a trans-Atlantic flight saves 3,000 gallons. The next-generation engine might improve fuel economy by 15%, saving another 1,800 gallons. A third-generation engine improves fuel economy by 10%, and saves closer to 1,000 gallons. The gallons saved in the third iteration might not justify spending billions on new plane and engine developments.

GE Aerospace has a plan to deliver the needed step change. It and its 50/50 CFM joint venture partner Safran have their RISE engine program that can improve fuel efficiency by some 20% over CFM's LEAP engines that power 737 MAX jets and A320neo planes.

The RISE engine is an open-fan architecture -- no more engine cowl hiding the fan blades. GE and Safran will ramp up testing in 2026 with the goal having a commercially viable engine in the 2030s. That timeline has bought Boeing some recovery time.

"Airbus [is] probably ahead on next-gen narrow body [single aisle jet]," says Vertical Research Partners analyst Rob Stallard. "But it wants to get a lot more comfort on the engine situation before moving to launching a plane."

To be sure, there are other reasons Airbus hasn't launched a new jet. For starters, it doesn't have to. It has the dominant narrow-body product lineup right now with more than 60% market share. It's winning.

While Boeing has demurred for years about a new midsize aircraft, its strategy is a recipe for letting Airbus capture "two-thirds market share, " says Aboulafia, adding that there are other engine options to consider including Rolls-Royce Ultrafan or an upgraded geared turbofan from RTX subsidiary Pratt & Whitney. "You work with an engine company about defining a next generation engine. It takes them five or six years...and you tie a [new] aircraft to it."

New engines or not, eventually Boeing will need a new plane, if for no other reason than to defend its market share against Airbus. For now, it looks as if there won't be a plane announcement soon. That buys Boeing a little more time to get its house in order.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

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June 09, 2025 08:58 ET (12:58 GMT)

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