金吾财讯 | 交银国际发布新能源行业下半年展望，该机构对行业进行排序，运营商>光伏玻璃>多晶硅>逆变器>电池片：该机构认为运营商平均有40%/5%以上的分红比率/股息率，较具防守性，该机构首选中国电力(02380/买入)，预期2Q25火电点火价差环比提高，提升盈利稳定性，同时公司水电重组带来估值提升的机会。该机构亦看好股息政策在子行业中最优的京能清洁能源(00579/买入)。光伏玻璃产能有望减少，行业恢复供需平衡的确定性更高，该机构首选1Q25率先扭亏的福莱特(06865/买入)。多晶硅板块中颗粒硅盈利优势凸显及1Q25 EBITDA率先转正的协鑫科技(03800/买入)值得投资者优先关注。新能源运营商方面，该机构认为新能源运营商的中长期策略应有明显转变，股息率及盈利稳利性是投资者短期较关心的因素。光伏方面，该机构预计产能出清仍将主要通过市场化手段完成， 2026年行业有望出现实质性反转。光伏玻璃板块目前盈利有明显好转，多晶硅板块颗粒硅盈利优势凸显并有望继续扩大。风电方面，该机构预计风电2025年新增装机将同比增长23%。唯过去装机年度过后出现调整的可能性较高，同时亦取决于新政策后增量项目电价水平再作考量，该机构保守估计2026年内地风电新增装机量将同比小幅下跌。
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