【瓶片短中期交易驱动是什么？】金十期货6月9日讯，1. 成本端，国际油价受OPEC+增产预期、美伊核谈判等因素影响，布伦特原油跌破70美元/桶关键支撑位，拖累PTA和乙二醇价格下行。PTA现货跌至4870元/吨，乙二醇现货跌破4400元/吨。短期扰动仍在频繁变换，受活跃钻井数大幅下降以及美国新一轮对伊朗制裁启动，再叠加全球能源消费旺季逐步来临，开始低位反弹。成本端整体压力较大，短期受低位反弹或许有一定支撑。 2. 供应端，上周国内产量为38.26万吨，环比减少0.68万吨；产能利用率降至84.64%(环比-3.7个百分点)，主要因部分装置检修导致供应收缩。2025年计划新增产能215万吨，叠加当前库存天数高达16-18天(处于同期高位)，整体供应宽松格局未改，持续压制价格。3. 需求端方面软饮料行业开工率虽恢复至80%-90%，但终端成品库存高企，补库仅限刚需小单，追涨动力不足。出口方面尽管2月出口量同比增27.3%至48.76万吨，但全球经济放缓及海外反倾销调查抑制进一步增量。需求端整体有压力，短期结构性行情需要进一步跟踪旺季表现。 4. 中辉期货分析师苏日嘎拉图认为，成本端支撑乏力，以及下游需求跟进不足是长期矛盾，不过结构性行情还需关注后续外围消息变化、装置变化以及需求恢复情况，不排除跟随成本端出现技术性上涨。
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