花旗发表研究报告指，若港元兑美元触及7.85弱方兑换保证且外汇需求仍存在，金管局将沽售美元以维持联系汇率，并减少港元流动性，估计将会有约700亿至1,000亿港元流动性会被抽走，导致短期港元利率升至介乎2%至3%，届时港元兑美元将重回约7.82至7.83兑一美元水平。
该行认为，即使HIBOR企稳在2%至3%，仍较今年首季水平低约1至2个百分点，更低的利率将为经济发展带来支持，香港地产商可受惠于融资成本下降，低息环境亦对商业地产有利，目前预测至今年底三个月HIBOR将升至约3%，但仍低于首季时水平。
花旗估算，若HIBOR企稳在2.2%以上，住宅实际按息料达3.5%，若港元利率的回落可持续，香港地产商融资成本负担可减轻，预料全年利润可增加高达3%，维持全年香港楼价下跌3%的预测。考虑到房托及住宅类地产股更能受惠，经历近期升幅后，基于估值及最新业绩预测，花旗预料香港地产股股价将在现有水平整固，首选股包括香港置地、领展(00823.HK) 及新地(00016.HK) 。
对于港银，该行认为HIBOR回落为银行带来净息差压力，估计HIBOR每下降25个基点，银行的税前盈利将受到0.2%至2.1%的负面影响。(gc/da)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-06-16 12:25。)
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