Meteorologists forecast hotter-than-normal weather through July 1
Triple-digit storage builds expected for record 8th week
LNG export feedgas down in May, June after record high in April
By Scott DiSavino
June 16 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures climbed about 3% to a one-week high on Monday on forecasts for hotter weather and higher cooling demand over the next two weeks than previously expected, which should boost the amount of gas electric generators burn to produce power as homes and businesses crank up air conditioners.
Gas futures for July delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 9.5 cents, or 2.9%, to $3.676 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), putting the contract on track for its highest close since June 6.
That price increase occurred despite analyst expectations that energy firms set another storage record during the week of June 13 with an eighth triple-digit injection.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release the June 13 storage report a day early on Wednesday due to the U.S. Juneteenth holiday on Thursday. EIA/GAS GAS/POLL
During the week ended June 6, energy firms added 100 billion cubic feet or more of gas into storage for seven weeks in a row, tying the seven-week triple-digit injection record set in June 2014, according to federal energy data going back to 2010.
So far this year, energy firms have pulled a monthly record high of 1.013 trillion cubic feet of gas out of storage during a brutally cold January and added a monthly record high of 497 bcf into storage in May when mild weather kept both heating and cooling demand low, according to federal energy data. The prior all-time monthly injection high was 494 bcf in May 2015.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states has held at 105.2 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, the same as in May. That figure was down from the monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in March due primarily to normal spring maintenance.
Meteorologists forecast weather across the Lower 48 states will remain mostly warmer than normal through at least July 1.
With hotter summer weather coming, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would rise from 99.8 bcfd this week to 102.7 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
The average amount of gas flowing to the eight big U.S. LNG export plants has fallen to 14.1 bcfd so far in June, down from 15.0 bcfd in May and a monthly record high of 16.0 bcfd in April.
Traders said LNG feedgas reductions since April were primarily due to normal spring maintenance, including work at Cameron LNG's 2.0-bcfd plant in Louisiana and Cheniere Energy's LNG.N 4.5-bcfd Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana and 3.9-bcfd Corpus Christi plant in Texas, and short, unplanned unit outages at Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas on May 6, May 23, May 28 and June 3.
Energy traders said they expect maintenance to continue through late-June at Sabine, which has been pulling about 3.0 bcfd of gas since the end of May. That figure compares with average feedgas of 4.5 bcfd during the month of May.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG supplier in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading around a 10-week high of $13 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and a 12-week high of $13 at the Japan Korea Marker JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Week ended Jun 13 Forecast | Week ended Jun 6 Actual | Year ago Jun 13 | Five-year average Jun 13 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +102 | +109 | +72 | +72 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,809 | 2,707 | 3,035 | 2,640 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | +6.4% | +5.4% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2024 | Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 | 3.72 | 3.58 | 2.81 | 2.41 | 3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 | 13.30 | 12.83 | 10.87 | 10.95 | 15.47 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 | 13.39 | 12.50 | 12.30 | 11.89 | 15.23 |
LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 8 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 10 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 209 | 191 | 216 | 177 | 163 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 217 | 202 | 224 | 185 | 173 |
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 105.4 | 105.6 | 105.4 | 102.2 | 96.8 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 8.0 | 7.5 | 7.2 | N/A | 7.3 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply | 113.3 | 113.1 | 112.7 | N/A | 104.1 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | N/A | 2.3 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 7.5 | 7.2 | 7.4 | N/A | 6.3 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 13.7 | 14.1 | 14.6 | 12.6 | 9.1 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.8 |
U.S. Residential | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.3 |
U.S. Power Plant | 38.2 | 39.0 | 41.2 | 40.5 | 38.0 |
U.S. Industrial | 22.1 | 22.2 | 22.3 | 21.6 | 21.5 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.8 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 76.0 | 76.9 | 79.2 | 75.3 | 76.8 |
Total U.S. Demand | 98.8 | 99.8 | 102.7 | N/A | 88.2 |
N/A is Not Available | |||||
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) | 2025 Current Day % of Normal Forecast | 2025 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2024 % of Normal Actual | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 79 | 79 | 74 | 83 | 107 |
Jan-Jul | 79 | 79 | 76 | 77 | 102 |
Oct-Sep | 81 | 81 | 77 | 76 | 103 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jun 20 | Week ended Jun 13 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | |
Wind | 9 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 11 |
Solar | 8 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Hydro | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 40 | 41 | 42 | 41 | 38 |
Coal | 17 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 21 |
Nuclear | 20 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL | 2.65 | 2.90 | |||
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL | 1.60 | 1.82 | |||
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL | 2.74 | 3.08 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL | 1.60 | 1.82 | |||
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL | 2.39 | 2.65 | |||
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL | 1.60 | 1.95 | |||
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL | 3.23 | 3.63 | |||
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL | 1.83 | 2.25 | |||
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL | 0.49 | 0.92 | |||
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX | 30.00 | 31.50 | |||
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX | 37.00 | 45.45 | |||
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX | 34.07 | 28.60 | |||
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX | 41.75 | 34.17 | |||
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX | 25.51 | 15.42 |
text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminalFor graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.htmlFor next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NGFor next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWRFor U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLLFor U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFCFor U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGASFor the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWERTo determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565BNYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))
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