金吾财讯 | 国信证券发研指，周大福(01929)2025财年实现营收895.56亿港元，同比-17.75%，归母净利润59.16亿港元，同比-8.98%。整体受制于高金价短期抑制终端需求影响收入，黄金借贷合约产生亏损影响利润等。而扣除黄金借贷公允价值变动等因素影响后，公司经营利润147.46亿港元，同比+9.8%，实现了较强的经营韧性。此外，公司年度派息率87.8%。该机构指出，随着黄金珠宝行业下半年步入相对低基数，以及优质产品供给下，预计短期增速确定性较高。中长期看，在消费者悦己加保值双重需求共振下，行业仍有望维持稳中有进趋势。公司作为行业龙头，产品端持续创新，强设计属性的定价产品具备较强竞争力。同时渠道端积极升级门店形象和区域优化，以提升单店效益。并在竞争加剧的行业环境中，保持较强的品牌影响力。该机构表示，考虑到公司高毛利定价产品竞争力增强带来毛利率提升，上调公司2026-2027财年归母净利润至70.62/81.04亿港元（前值分别为61.54/68.84亿港元），新增2028财年预测为90.49亿港元，对应PE分别为18.3/16/14.3倍，维持“优于大市”评级。
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