BlockBeats reported on June 16 that QCP published its daily market commentary, stating, "Despite ongoing tensions in the Middle East, Bitcoin has shown no signs of a panic sell-off. Following initial turbulence triggered by news of Iran-Israel tensions last Friday, this benchmark crypto asset has gradually regained ground, recovering from a weekly low of $102,800 to $107,000. Similar rebounds have been observed in other major cryptocurrencies as well as U.S. equity index futures."
The robust performance of Bitcoin has been underpinned significantly by continued institutional accumulation. Notably, institutions like Metaplanet and Strategy have consistently bought the dips, while the spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded net inflows for the seventh consecutive week. After Bitcoin managed to hold the psychologically significant $100,000 level, market sentiment has notably stabilized. More importantly, the recent pullback was a mere 3%, far smaller than the over 8% drop witnessed in April last year during the Iran-Israel escalation.
On a broader scale, despite escalating geopolitical risks, the overall market reaction has been relatively muted. Bitcoin's short-term implied volatility is still below 40, and the VIX fear index remains steady around 20. Under current circumstances, both indicators are at historically low levels. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury bonds and a variety of Asian sovereign bonds have been attracting capital inflows, indicating that the market has yet to fully shift to risk-off mode.
However, cautious sentiment persists. If Iran moves to block the Strait of Hormuz, it could trigger a surge in oil prices. Should the situation escalate further, or if the U.S. initiates direct military intervention, global risk assets might face more severe turbulence.
Ironically, some viewpoints suggest that these risks might present a structural tailwind for Bitcoin. With Bitcoin currently only about 6% down from its all-time high, its recent performance has reinforced a narrative: Bitcoin's adoption trajectory is increasingly being driven by macroeconomic disorder, growing sovereign debt burdens, and geopolitical instability."
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