智通财经APP获悉，高盛集团将美国未来12个月经济衰退概率预期从35%下调至30%，主要基于中美新一轮谈判后贸易紧张局势的缓和，具体进展包括：1）关税税率框架协议；2）中国取消稀土出口限制；3）恢复中国留学生赴美求学通道。
该行指出，金融条件已基本恢复至加征关税前水平，贸易政策不确定性略有缓解。尽管通胀数据仍有限，但高盛认为关税对消费者价格的影响比最初担忧的更为温和。
基于前景改善，高盛同时将2025年GDP增长预期从1%上调至1.25%，并预计失业率峰值将控制在4.4%水平。
智通财经APP获悉，高盛集团将美国未来12个月经济衰退概率预期从35%下调至30%，主要基于中美新一轮谈判后贸易紧张局势的缓和，具体进展包括：1）关税税率框架协议；2）中国取消稀土出口限制；3）恢复中国留学生赴美求学通道。
该行指出，金融条件已基本恢复至加征关税前水平，贸易政策不确定性略有缓解。尽管通胀数据仍有限，但高盛认为关税对消费者价格的影响比最初担忧的更为温和。
基于前景改善，高盛同时将2025年GDP增长预期从1%上调至1.25%，并预计失业率峰值将控制在4.4%水平。
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