The latest Market Talks covering Financial Services. Exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

1123 ET - Canada's housing market remains subdued but resale conditions in general are not worsening, while construction activity continues to push ahead," BMO Economics' Robert Kavcic says. "It appears that a less-aggressive tone on the trade front and some political clarity in Canada have eased the stress on buyer confidence, but mortgage rates are still not low enough to improve affordability and/or rekindle investor demand," the economist says. Kavcic continues to anticipate subdued sales and listless prices nationally. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

0606 ET - The potential of Aviva's pending Direct Line acquisition is already reflected in the U.K. insurer's share price, Barclays says. The deal is a good strategic fit and has promising scale benefits and synergies. However, the forecasts have already included its impact, analyst Larissa van Deventer writes in a research note. There could be downsides to costs next year as operations integrate, the analyst adds. "Management has built strong operations in the group's three main businesses, but at current pricing levels we consider that strength to be reflected in the share price," she writes. Barclays cuts its rating on the stock to equalweight from overweight and keeps its 580 price target. Shares edge up 0.3% to 607.6 pence and have gained 30% year to date. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

0552 ET - M&G's steps on expansion seem promising, Barclays says in a research note. The investment manager has a strong capital base supporting growth, analyst Larissa van Deventer writes. "M&G's growth potential is not reflected in its current share price," she writes. This is partly due to its strong solvency position relative to U.K. life peers and its improving leverage ratio. The turnaround in its asset management operations and its operating capital generation growth path also stand out as reasons, she adds. Barclays raises its rating on the stock to overweight from equalweight and its price target to 295 pence from 240 pence. Shares are up 1.2% at 257.8 pence. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

0536 ET - Metro Bank is in a much better place, AJ Bell's Russ Mould says in a market comment. Any suitor would need to take a longer-term view of its potential to justify paying a large premium to the current market price, Mould says. Reports of a takeover approach for the U.K. challenger bank sent shares higher. The group has been on a rollercoaster journey. But it has now repositioned itself as a business banking provider after a rocky patch that resulted in an emergency fundraise, Mould adds. Investors are now slowly regaining confidence. The price a suitor such as Pollen Street Capital would pay is unknown and shares aren't cheap against 2025 earnings expectations, he adds. The stock is up 15% at 128.8 pence, and has gained 217% on a 12-month basis. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

0534 ET - Reports of a bid approach for Metro Bank affirm that the challenger bank's rehabilitation continues and that there is plenty of upside for shares, Peel Hunt says in a research note. "Our work backs up the significant value opportunity, with the sensitivity analysis...of our valuation model pointing to a bull case north of 200 [pence] being feasible if and when the transformation plan is fully delivered," analysts Stephen Payne and Stuart Duncan write. This compares with Peel Hunt's new price target price of 157 pence for the stock, and a price of 129 pence on Monday morning after reports sent shares almost 15% higher. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

0513 ET - There is commercial logic in a potential Metro Bank takeover by private equity group Pollen Street Capital, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods say in a research note. Sky News reported the approach but no price is mentioned and both parties declined to comment. Pollen is also the majority shareholder of Shawbrook Bank, which has strong commercial loan growth but relatively expensive funding. Meanwhile, Metro Bank's plans to grow lending in that area haven't yet gathered momentum but it has cheap current account funding, analysts write. Challenges to a deal will be whether Metro Bank's management and main shareholder are ready to abandon their recently-issued strategy and whether a price can be agreed on. KBW raises its rating to market perform from underperform and the price target to 150 pence from 95 pence. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

0430 ET - Aegon's Transamerica earnings and the Dutch insurer's ability to remit U.S. cash to the group could be seriously dented by the introduction of Trump's new tax provision, ING says in a research note. The proposed change would give the U.S. power to impose new taxes of up to 20% on foreigners with U.S. investments. The worst-case scenario is a 50% tax on remittances, from 0% currently, analyst Jason Kalamboussis writes. "Mitigating actions could be to leave more capital within the U.S. but it would reduce capital distribution plans," he notes. The bill still needs to go through Senate and be implemented. In the meantime, ING expects Aegon to keep focusing on accelerating third party deals to exit legacy books. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

0428 ET - Swissquote's stock has had a strong run but now faces risk to the downside, UBS says in a research note. The Swiss online bank has seen its shares rising by a third since the start of the year on strong trading activity and crypto momentum. Risks on the horizon include slower trading activity, a decline in crypto volumes and lower Swiss interest rate expectations which could hit net interest income, analysts write. Its price to earnings multiple could be vulnerable as the group shifts its earnings mix to banking under its 2028 strategy, they note. Due to the headwinds ahead, UBS lowers its rating to sell from neutral but keeps a 410 Swiss franc target price. Shares fall 5.1% to 447 francs. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

0414 ET - Mediobanca's proposed takeover of Banca Generali will go ahead, Equita says in a research note after the Italian bank pushed its shareholder meeting to Sept. 25 from June 16. Mediobanca delayed the meeting after some shareholders wanted to know in advance the position of Assicurazioni Generali, Banca Generali's majority shareholder. The fact that the proposed deal got unanimous consent of all proxy advisors and a positive orientation from Mediobanca's main institutional shareholders confirms the soundness and strategic viability of the integration project, analyst Luigi de Bellis writes. The offer's terms remain valid and completion is confirmed between September and October. Shares in Banca Generali fall 2% while Mediobanca's edge up 0.2%. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

0332 ET - Shares in U.K.'s Metro Bank rose to 128 pence--their highest level in more than two years--before paring some of the gains to trade up 8% at 121 pence. The stock jump followed Sky News report on an approach about a possible takeover by private-equity firm Pollen Street Capital. The group owns almost half of Shawbrook Bank, and could likely seek to merge it with Metro Bank, Seapoint Insights analyst John Cronin says. The desire of Shawbrook's owners for a liquidity event has been widely reported, he notes. "Seeking out opportunities to bolster the returns profile of Shawbrook (which I am assuming is what the reported Pollen Street approach to [Metro Bank] is fundamentally about) is sensible and could be transformative from a returns perspective for the bank," he writes. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

0217 ET - The ultra-long end of the Japanese government bond market is facing a difficult situation, say Commerzbank Research's Michael Pfister and Erik Liem in a note. "Inflation and interest rate expectations for the Bank of Japan are rising steadily," they say. The Japanese finance ministry, considering shifting government bond supply away from ultra-long-term bonds to shorter-dated ones, is likely to calm the situation only temporarily, they say. This is because it will not address the fundamental reasons behind the rise in ultra-long JGB yields, they say. Lifers, typically the largest investors in long-term bonds, are reducing their demand, Pfister, an FX analyst and Liem, a rates strategist, say. JGB yields are up, with the 30-year yield 2.4 basis points higher at 2.903%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 16, 2025 12:20 ET (16:20 GMT)

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