The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1034 ET - Signal interference is spreading across key Middle Eastern shipping lanes, disrupting vessel tracking and raising fresh concerns over maritime security, according to Kpler's market analysts. "The Middle East Gulf, along with nearby ports in the Red Sea and Eastern Mediterranean, is experiencing a rapidly escalating and geographically expanding wave of Automatic Identification System $(AIS.AU)$ jamming, signaling a significant deterioration in maritime security," Emmanuel Belostrino and Yan Rong Fong say. The interference, first detected near the Iranian ports of Assaluyeh and Bandar Abbas, has now extended to Bashair in the Red Sea and Haifa in the Eastern Mediterranean. "Crucially, the jamming now appears to be affecting vessels across all commodities, broadening the scope of potential disruption beyond specific oil flows," the analysts say. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0920 ET - Wide swings in crude oil futures have slowed as the market eyes the Israel-Iran conflict. "The complex is taking a pause given little overnight news out of the Mideast but remains on edge as it awaits upcoming developments," says Ritterbusch and Associates in a note. The firm says a big factor is whether the U.S. will be directly involved, which may increase the chance of oil supply chain interruptions. Crude oil futures are up 0.4%, while Brent crude is up 0.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0911 ET - Heat arriving across the U.S. following an extensive period of rain in many areas continues to boost natural gas futures, with the most-active contract up 1.6% to $3.914 per mmBtu. Analysts with EBW AnalyticsGroup say that natural gas storage is anticipated to reach "a short-term peak" before retreating as July begins. This may be enough to send natural gas futures up to $4 per mmBtu, says the firm. That would close in on the year-high set in March, when natural gas futures topped out near $4.50 per mmBtu. If natural gas futures finish higher today, it'll be the fourth consecutive session of gains. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0858 ET - The global insurance market is monitoring the escalating geopolitical challenges in the Middle East after Israel's attack on Iran and the key risks that poses, the CEO of Lloyd's Market Association says at the Financial Times Global Insurance Summit in London. One of the risks is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The likelihood of this is low but would be high impact if it happens as it funnels one-fifth of global oil and a quarter of LNG, Sheila Cameron says. Other risks include a nuclear event, which would ground planes immediately, Cameron says. More probable is an accidental strike from an astray rocket on a tanker or ship, she says. These scenarios could have massive supply-chain ramifications, she adds. (elena.vardon@wsj.com)

0813 ET - The Norges Bank's policy decision Thursday is unlikely to have a significant effect on the krone with the currency driven by oil prices amid the Israel-Iran conflict, Commerzbank's Antje Praefcke says in a note. Norway's central bank looks set to leave interest rates unchanged, Praefcke says. Norges Bank will likely continue to signal a first rate cut toward the end of the year, she says. "For the euro versus the krone, this means continued sideways trading with a slight tendency toward a stronger krone as long as the conflict in the Middle East, which is supporting oil prices, continues to smolder." The euro rises 0.4% to 11.4374 after hitting a two-and-a-half-month low of 11.3910 late Tuesday, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0738 ET - The collapse of the purported deal between Tullow Oil and Meren Energy is no surprise, Panmure Liberum's Ashley Kelty writes. Tullow has $1.3 billion in debt that needs refinancing next year which is the most likely reason talks collapsed, he says. At current oil prices, the free cash flow generated by Tullow's assets isn't enough for potential acquirers to justify taking on the debt, he writes. Having raised the prospect of a liquidity squeeze next year, the London-listed oil company will probably be forced to dispose of more assets, he adds. Shares trade down 17% at 17.72 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0733 ET - Kuehne + Nagel second-quarter earnings will be dragged down by lower freight rates, Jefferies analyst Michael Aspinall writes. The bank says it thinks sea freight rates have fallen 7% in the quarter while air freight rates have dropped 2%. In addition, currency movements will present a headwind as the Swiss franc is up 11% versus the U.S. dollar since February. Volumes will be less of an issue than feared, with Jefferies forecasting sea volumes up 1% and air volumes up 10%. A rapid rise in container sea freight rates in June will only be visible in third-quarter earnings. Jefferies says it is unclear how long higher rates will be sustained. Air freight rates are expected to stay higher for longer in the medium term, the bank adds. Shares rise 0.2%. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)

0513 ET - The geopolitical risk premium that is keeping oil prices elevated will likely last weeks rather than months, says Norbert Rücker of Julius Baer. The situation surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict is fluid, but it is also important to examine what hasn't happened so far, Rücker says. Export-related energy infrastructure remains intact around the Persian Gulf, and the U.S. and other allies haven't been pulled into the conflict yet, he says. Military action seems carefully considered given the circumstances, and "this lack of escalation so far explains the surprisingly unemotional oil price reaction." Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 1.2% lower at $73.91/bbl; front-month Brent futures fall 1.3% to $75.49/bbl. (kimberley.kao@wsj.com)

0450 ET - The dollar might fall if the Trump administration confirms U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict in coming days, MUFG Bank analyst Derek Halpenny says in a note. Any U.S involvement would potentially hasten the end of the conflict and curtail Iran's incentive to create any crude oil supply disruption, he says. That could prompt a correction lower in oil prices and weaken the dollar, he says. Lower oil prices would support the case for further U.S. interest-rate cuts and are negative for America's terms of trade as a major oil producer. President Trump in a Truth Social post on Tuesday suggested the U.S. could join Israel's strikes. The DXY dollar index falls 0.1% to 98.688. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0402 ET - European natural-gas prices continue to climb. Traders are closely monitoring developments in the Strait of Hormuz amid fears of potential supply disruptions to global flows. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract rises 1.2% to 39.78 euros a megawatt hour, bringing weekly gains to nearly 11%. Qatar--one of the world's top LNG exporters--asked LNG vessels to wait outside the Strait of Hormuz until they were ready to load due to rising tensions in the region, according to a Bloomberg report. "While shipments are not expected to be delayed, it's enough to keep the market nervous," analysts at ANZ Research say. The waterway handles around 20% of global LNG trade. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0355 ET - The oil market's biggest fear is the Strait of Hormuz shutting down, which would affect oil flows from the Persian Gulf, ING commodities strategists write in a note. Almost a third of global seaborne oil trade moves via this chokepoint. A significant disruption to oil flows would be sufficient to push prices to $120/bbl, they say. In this case, OPEC's spare capacity would not help the market as most of it is located in the Persian Gulf, they forecast. Under such a scenario, governments may have to tap their strategic petroleum reserves, though that would only be a temporary fix, ING says. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.55% lower at $74.43/bbl; front-month Brent crude oil futures are 0.7% lower at $75.90/bbl. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0353 ET - Tullow Oil's continuing debt-refinancing plans were likely an obstacle to any merger with Meren Energy, Shore Capital's James Hosie writes. This follows a report from Sky News that the London-listed oil company had been in talks with Canada's Meren as recently as this month. However, discussions between the two Africa-focused oil companies have stopped, the report said. There is some logic to a combination between the two companies, Hosie writes. Oil price volatility and challenges associated with obtaining government and regulatory approvals in Ghana make any deal difficult, he adds. The talks are an indication that peers see value in Tullow's core Ghanaian production assets, the analyst says. Tullow's shares trade down 6.5% at 20 pence. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 18, 2025 10:34 ET (14:34 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2025 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.