宏观经济美国经济 - 美联储短期保持观望美联储决议声明变化较小,保持政策利率不变符合预期,认为经济不确定性小幅下降但仍居高。点阵图变化指向经济滞涨风险,今年两次降息预测中值不变,经济增速预测中值下降,失业率和通胀预测中值抬升。鲍威尔在记者会言论显示鹰派立场,他认为关税将导致未来数月通胀上升,目前劳动力市场仍然稳健,不必急于降息,将在确认通胀开始下行后再开始降息。我们维持美联储9月开始降息、11月或...
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