大摩发表报告指，香港住宅市场连续七年下跌，楼价已从2021年8月的历史高位(于2018年7月首次触及)回调近30%。尽管可能仍处于早期阶段，但该行乐观地认为可能正处于上行周期的开始，并可能会持续4至5年。原因包括中原CCL已落后于恒生指数，并可能迎头赶上；工资增长有助负担能力回升至2010年的水平；结构性利好如低土地供应及取消额外印花税；低利率。另料楼价下半年升2%。
选股方面，该行偏好新地(00016.HK) 、恒地(00012.HK) 及嘉里建设(00683.HK) ，因为它们是香港银行同业拆息下调的主要受惠者，并具有充裕的可售资源。当中，对恒地评级由“与大市同步”升至“增持”，但将信置(00083.HK) 级级由“增持”降至“与大市同步”。地产股目标价详见另表。
大摩对新世界发展(00017.HK) 及九龙仓集团(00004.HK) 仍持审慎态度，前者流动资金紧绌及永续债票息递增，后者估值不吸引及股息率低至1.7%。(ha/da)(港股报价延迟最少十五分钟。沽空资料截至 2025-06-19 16:25。)
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