浦银国际发表报告指，6月美联储会议继续决定暂停降息，符合市场预期。该行维持美联储最快9月重启降息，全年降息两次，每次降25个基点的基本预测。
从关税谈判来看，特朗普在6月中美伦敦会谈后表示美方会将对中国商品的平均关税维持在55%，而中方将放开稀土的出口管制。这符合该行在下半年展望报告作出的下半年关税维持现状的基本假设，也有助于缓解短期内市场对中美关税战的担忧。
不过，目前尚无明确的贸易协议公布，尚不明确该项承诺是永久性的还是暂时性的。对90天暂缓期即将结束(7月8日)的其他国家而言，特朗普的态度则较为模棱两可。该行依然认为特朗普最终将延长“个性化对等关税”实施的暂缓期，不过考虑到特朗普政策的多变性，亦不能排除特朗普先宣布执行新的双边关税，再宣布暂缓的可能性。
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