金吾财讯 | 东兴证券报告指出，2025年一季度特朗普上台后能源行业政策影响油价，另外关税政策对全球需求预期产生消极影响，25Q1国际油价同比回落，但仍在中高位，油气板块仍将保持较高景气度。自2024年第三季度，Brent原油现货价格有下降趋势，炼化及贸易板块业绩下滑。2024年炼化及贸易板块实现营业收入同比下降3.29%，实现归母净利润同比下降5.06%。25Q1炼化及贸易板块实现营业收入同比下降7.25%，实现归母净利润同比下降6.18%。炼化及贸易板块业绩变化主要由于全球贸易摩擦加剧，原油、天然气、成品油等油气产品价格下降以及汽油、柴油销售数量减少，销售净利率下降等原因。该机构表示，2024年受宏观经济放缓、能源价格高位、终端消费低迷及房地产持续下滑等不利因素影响，行业整体面临成本高企叠加需求不足的双重经营压力，普遍盈利能力下降。2025年一季度以来，随着油价中枢回落，成本压力有所缓解。从需求端来看，终端消费需求不足，上下游产品价格传导不畅，导致产品涨幅不及上游原料，进一步压缩企业利润空间，炼化及贸易板块期待改善和修复。
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