US natgas heads for best week in more than a month on hot-weather forecasts

Reuters
20 Jun
US natgas heads for best week in more than a month on hot-weather forecasts

Natgas prices up over 10% for the week

Israel struck dozens of military targets overnight

Freeport LNG seeks 40-month extension for Train 4 completion

By Ashitha Shivaprasad

June 20 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slipped on Friday but headed for its best week in more than a month, steered by forecasts for hotter weather that should boost the amount of gas power generators burn to keep air conditioners humming.

Gas futures for July delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2 cents, or 0.5%, to $3.97 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), after hitting its highest level since April earlier in the session at $4.148. Prices were up over 10% so far for the week.

"It’s hot hot hot. Not only are temperatures heating up in the United States with a major heat wave, the tensions between Israel and Iran are still hot," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.

"With temperatures expected to reach triple digits in major cities from Chicago to the East Coast could lead to a record-breaking demand for natural gas as air conditioners will be humming."

On the geopolitical front, a week into its campaign, Israel said it had struck dozens of military targets overnight, including missile production sites, a research body involved in nuclear weapons development in Tehran and military facilities in western and central Iran.

The Iran-Israel conflict has intensified supply concerns in the global gas market, fueled by fears over the secure passage of LNG cargo through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most strategically significant chokepoints in the global energy supply chain.

Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states stood at 105.3 billion cubic feet per day so far in June, which remains below the monthly record high of 106.3 bcfd in March due primarily to normal spring maintenance earlier in the month.

On Wednesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms pulled 95 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas from storage during the week ended June 13. That was a little smaller than the 98-bcf build analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and compared with an increase of 72 bcf during the same week last year and a five-year (2020-2024) average of 72 bcf for this time of year. EIA/GAS

"This week’s EIA report indicated a smaller storage injection than we had expected... But while conceding that such a supply will continue to deter hedge selling interest, we also feel that the storage excess could be easily erased as the summer proceeds if warmer than normal temperatures extend well into next month and if some hurricane premium is required," Ritterbush said in a note.

Meanwhile, Freeport LNG has requested a 40-month extension from federal regulators to complete the long-delayed Train 4 expansion at its Texas export facility, aiming to bring the project online by December 1, 2031, according to a filing.

Week ended Jun 13 Forecast

Week ended Jun 6 Actual

Year ago Jun 13

Five-year average

Jun 13

U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+98

+109

+72

+72

U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

2,805

2,707

3,035

2,640

U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

+6.3%

+5.4%

Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2024

Five-Year Average (2019-2023)

Henry Hub NGc1

3.97

3.85

2.81

2.41

3.52

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

13.21

13.43

10.87

10.95

15.47

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

13.88

14.01

12.30

11.89

15.23

LSEG Heating $(HDD.UK)$, Cooling $(CDD.AU)$ and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

7

7

8

8

9

U.S. GFS CDDs

215

214

216

177

167

U.S. GFS TDDs

222

221

224

185

176

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

105.4

105.4

105.3

102.2

96.8

U.S. Imports from Canada

8.0

7.7

7.6

N/A

7.3

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Total U.S. Supply

113.3

113.1

112.8

N/A

104.1

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.6

1.8

1.8

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.5

7.4

7.5

N/A

6.3

U.S. LNG Exports

13.7

14.1

14.6

12.6

9.1

U.S. Commercial

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.5

4.8

U.S. Residential

3.8

3.8

3.5

3.8

4.3

U.S. Power Plant

38.2

41.5

41.8

40.5

38.0

U.S. Industrial

22.1

22.2

22.1

21.6

21.5

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.0

2.1

2.1

1.9

2.8

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

Total U.S. Consumption

76.0

79.4

79.1

75.3

76.8

Total U.S. Demand

98.8

102.8

102.9

N/A

88.2

N/A is Not Available

U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)

2025 Current Day

% of Normal Forecast

2025

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2024

% of Normal Actual

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022

% of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

79

79

74

83

107

Jan-Jul

79

79

76

77

102

Oct-Sep

81

81

77

76

103

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Jun 20

Week ended Jun 13

2024

2023

2022

Wind

9

9

11

10

11

Solar

8

8

5

4

3

Hydro

6

6

6

6

6

Other

1

1

1

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

41

41

42

41

38

Coal

18

17

16

17

21

Nuclear

17

18

19

19

19

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

3.43

2.89

Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

2.97

2.61

PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.09

2.58

Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

3.13

2.40

Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

3.33

2.73

Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

3.40

2.75

SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

4.05

3.64

Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

2.24

2.20

AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

1.25

1.01

ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX

56.84

43.15

PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX

39.61

54.01

Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX

37.21

37.23

Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX

39.25

47.34

SP-15 W-SP15-IDX

20.13

30.34

text_section_type="notes">For gas data on the LSEG terminal type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the LSEG terminalFor graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.htmlFor next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NGFor next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWRFor U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLLFor U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFCFor U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGASFor the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWERTo determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565BNYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C

(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru)

((Ashitha.Shivaprasad@thomsonreuters.com;))

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