中信证券：维持九兴控股(01836)“买入”评级目标价19港元

智通财经

Jun 19, 2025

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，综合考虑九兴控股(01836)历史估值区间和可比公司估值，近期公司估值因为关税冲击回调后具备吸引力，给予公司2025年12x PE，对应目标价19港元，维持“买入”评级。

报告指，公司2025年以来订单稳定增长，订单层面未看到关税波动的影响，时尚和奢侈品牌客户订单稳定，同时和新客户加速推进新鞋型的开发和生产，逐渐得到积极反馈订单。但公司2025年业绩或受①印尼新产能爬坡带来的部分短期毛利率压力;②潜在的少部分休闲品牌客户的关税分摊要求(公司预计头部运动和时尚&奢侈客户由品牌自身承担加征关税)等因素的负面影响，该行预计公司2025年收入/净利润同比+5%/+0.7%。

长期来看，根据公司公告及1Q25业绩交流会，公司仍在稳步推进厂区扩产计划：①头部运动品牌印尼工厂持续推进建设，预计2027年落地;②且有望在今年完成对包袋工厂的收购;③同时公司正在考虑在印尼建设新的运动工厂(多品牌)项目。综上，进一步验证该行对公司一直以来的看法：公司凭借优秀的生产工艺和独特的客户结构在全球需求波动中相对更稳定，仍然是头部代工厂中较为突出的高分红资产(10%左右的股息率)。

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