【券商聚焦】交银国际首予三生制药(01530)买入评级 指其核心大单品长期空间可观

金吾财讯
Jun 20, 2025

金吾财讯 | 交银国际研报指,三生制药(01530)特比澳为目前全球唯一获批CIT适应症的特异性升板药物,该机构看好其持续替代IL-11类竞品的潜力。同时,中短期内仿制药上市可能性较小,定价压力有限。该机构预计2024-26年产品销售CAGR有望达到11%,长期销售峰值将达70亿元。该机构预计蔓迪销售峰值可达25亿元,主要由于:1)中国内地脱发人群规模持续增长且年轻化;2)线上+线下协同营销不断强化品牌认知,新剂型、新包装和周边产品持续完善。公司引进的柯拉特龙乳膏剂Winlevi(痤疮)和司美格鲁肽(减重)有望于2-3年内上市,借助蔓迪的品牌效应和渠道优势,上市后快速放量可期。另外,1Q25,公司30 个在研产品中有12款已经/有望于2025-27年在中国内地上市。2025年5月,公司与辉瑞就自研的PD-1/VEGF双抗SSGJ-707达成授权协议,交易总金额最高可达60.5亿美元,居于同类榜首。该机构预测公司2024-26年收入/净利润分别录得10%/15%的CAGR(剔除合作收入后),得益于特比澳、蔓迪等现有大单品的持续增长和新品种上市后快速放量。基于DCF模型,给予公司目标价27.0港元,对应20.7倍2025年市盈率(剔除707 BD首付款影响)和1.4倍2025年PEG。公司正处于从传统大单品主导业绩转向新品迭代+出海驱动长期增长的关键节点,未来估值中枢有较大上调空间。首次覆盖给予买入评级。

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