瑞银发表研究报告指，自5月22日预示香港本地银行业盈利面临下调风险以来，一个月期香港银行同业拆息(HIBOR)一直低于1%，偏离了过去的季节性模式。尽管担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)与HIBOR之间的利差较大，该行认为均值回归需要时间。瑞银经济学家预测HIBOR将在年底稳定在2%至2.5%。 恒生银行将于7月30日公布2025年上半年业绩，该行预计净利润将同比下降17%，主要受三个因素驱动：净利息收入大幅下降、预期信贷损失减值费用因低基数效应而增加、以及税务费用显著上升。尽管盈利前景疲弱，瑞银预计恒生银行将随业绩公布推出新的回购计划。瑞银指，恒生银行目前以1.3倍一年期远期市净率交易，维持对该股的“中性”评级，目标价112港元，预计恒生银行2025年股息收益率为5.4%(基于目标价)，回购收益率为1%。
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